One unanticipated facet good thing about the NBA In-Season Event is what is likely to be known as Taking Inventory Week.
With most groups having performed 1 / 4 of their schedule or thereabouts (technically, no one has performed precisely 20.5 video games, however work with me right here), it’s a logical second to exhale, go searching and see how issues stand. That’s significantly true given the sunshine schedule this week for all however the two match finalists, a stretch of eight days with simply two video games scheduled for every group.
Conveniently, that additionally permits us time to sit down again and study a number of the surprises of the primary quarter of the season and consider how a lot endurance they may have. (We can also do that for the disappointments, in fact, besides we are able to’t assist ourselves and have already pored over their failures for weeks now. I wrote concerning the league’s eight doormats final week.)
Three groups, specifically, warrant additional examine: the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, the Orlando Magic and the Houston Rockets. All three had shedding information a 12 months in the past, however they’re a mixed 35-21 this season, and every has a optimistic scoring margin on the season; in truth, all three are within the prime 10 in internet ranking. If the season ended in the present day, the Thunder and Magic would have dwelling courtroom for a first-round playoff sequence, and the Rockets can be going through the LA Clippers in a Play-In sport.
As ever with early surprises, the underlying query nags at us: Is that this a small-sample mirage, or is that this actual? They undoubtedly gained these video games, in order that half is actual, however how a lot ought to this alter expectations for the ultimate three-quarters of the season? We’ve seen groups get off to quick begins earlier than, drunk on taking pictures luck and good well being, earlier than falling quickly again to earth. (Sadly, I do know the sensation: In 2018-19, as vice chairman of basketball operations, my Memphis Grizzlies have been 12-5 at Thanksgiving and a dozen video games underneath .500 by the top of January.)
However, all three groups have been patiently constructing so far, accumulating excessive lottery picks and steadily increasing their expertise base. Is it so unreasonable that they might begin profitable sooner or later? And that the flip may come quickly given their age profile?
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Let’s take a detailed have a look at every:
Houston Rockets
You is likely to be stunned to see Houston thrown in with these different groups because the Rockets are solely 8-9, however there are two arguments for retaining them right here. Initially, their plus-2.8 internet margin in opposition to a fairly tough schedule screams high quality.
Secondly … um, did you see this group a season in the past? Houston is probably not on the prime of the standings simply but, however relative to a 12 months in the past, the Rockets have arguably made the most important climb. The Rockets have been a 22-win group in 2022-23, and a foul one at that: an unserious assortment of me-first guys jacking unhealthy photographs at one finish and jogging again on the different. To see such a speedy transformation into a real, skilled basketball group has been jarring.
Between the arrival of Ime Udoka on the sideline and Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet in free company, no group has undergone a extra abrupt persona change. The Rockets have been lifeless final in factors misplaced to transition protection every of the previous two seasons, in line with Cleansing The Glass’ metric; this 12 months, they’re first!
The Rockets, on paper, formed up as one of many league’s most improved defenses; the actual fact they received higher isn’t a shock, however the magnitude of the acquire is. Even within the half courtroom, the Rockets have schemed round heart Alperen Şengün’s weaknesses much like the way in which the Denver Nuggets have round Nikola Jokić, by having 4 alert cellular perimeter defenders and harassing opponents out of isos in opposition to him on the perimeter. Şengün, for his half, has helped issues enormously by displaying improved lateral quickness and eliminating a number of the extra comical gambles that plagued his tape in his first two seasons; he’ll issue closely within the Most Improved Participant dialogue.
Alperen Şengün defends Denver’s Nikola Jokić at Ball Enviornment. (Isaiah J. Downing / USA At this time)
The priority for Houston this season was on the different finish, the place the Rockets projected as a bottom-five offense coming into the season. So far, they’re a quasi-respectable twentieth in offensive effectivity. Once more, Şengün’s enchancment has performed an enormous half, as a high-usage low-post menace who really sees the ball fairly than watching Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Inexperienced take turns dribbling the air out of it. Şengün stays a menace to throw a spinning behind-the-back go into Row 7, however he’s additionally dramatically reduce his turnover charge by deleting a number of the extra bold passes from his playlist.
Nonetheless, considerations about Houston’s offense will persist. There’s nonetheless wayyyyy an excessive amount of Inexperienced (27.6 % utilization, simply 54.5 % true taking pictures and the playmaking for others stays primary), and Brooks is unlikely to remain at 44.1 % from 3 all season.
Moreover, I might argue the protection could also be even much less sustainable. Houston has to date relied on Jedi 3-point protection (a league-leading 33.1 % opponent taking pictures from past the arc) and bizarrely good “free-throw protection” (opponents have made simply 75.4 %) to offset a sky-high foul charge and restricted turnover creation. Lastly, the Rockets’ most vital gamers have all been wholesome; the one important absences have been to reserves Tari Eason and Amen Thompson.
Nevertheless, I can offset that with the actual fact some unhealthy luck has labored in opposition to Houston. The Rockets are 8-9 however have performed higher than that signifies — they’ve already overwhelmed the Nuggets twice, thrashed the Los Angeles Lakers by 34 and the Sacramento Kings by 25 and solely have one loss by greater than 11 factors all season.
On stability, I might shift my priors on this group to count on a .500-ish outfit the remainder of the way in which, which places them firmly within the race for one of many 4 Play-In slots within the West.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are in all probability probably the most confounding of the groups on this checklist, as a result of they’re 14-6 regardless of a beginning lineup that looks as if it shouldn’t presumably work.
Within the wake of accidents to Wendell Carter Jr. and Markelle Fultz, Orlando’s 5 starters (Anthony Black, Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Goga Bitadze) common solely 23.4 3-point makes an attempt per 100 possessions mixed. Even low cost airline seats have higher spacing than this. As a comparability level, the Indiana Pacers’ starters common nearly twice as many 3-point makes an attempt (44.7 per 100), as Golden State Warriors teammates Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson let it rip 29.4 tries per 100 by themselves.
(Facet observe, since I simply talked about them: In case you’re questioning why the Pacers aren’t a part of this, they’re a separate case examine with some fairly attention-grabbing knowledge factors to unpack.)
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The Magic’s second unit shoots 3s extra typically than the starters, however the Magic are nonetheless twenty eighth within the NBA in 3-point frequency and amazingly don’t have a single particular person participant within the prime 80 in makes an attempt per 100.
And but … Orlando has managed to cobble collectively a midway first rate offense by way of brute drive, continually getting downhill for rim assaults and free throws. The Magic lead within the NBA in photographs within the restricted space; in a associated story, in addition they lead in free-throw charge and shoot a strong 77 % as soon as they received there. (That quantity might go even increased if Banchero can enhance on his 66.9 % from the stripe.)
Mainly, the Magic’s off-dribble attackers — led by Wagner, Banchero and bench sparkplug Cole Anthony — are so good at attending to the rim that even cramped spacing can’t cease them. To their credit score, the Magic even have shot decently on their rare 3-point makes an attempt and flash a bit extra spacing when subs like Anthony, Gary Harris and Joe Ingles are on the ground.
The true story in Orlando, nonetheless, is the protection, and once more brute drive is far of the story. The Magic are an amazing “possession” protection, one which ranks first in forcing turnovers and second in defensive rebounding. Thus, they restrict opponent shot makes an attempt to such an extent that they’ll enable the next share and nonetheless thrive.
Suggs, specifically, has changed into an absolute monster on this finish, a whirling dervish of power, however it is a group effort: Every of the highest eight gamers in minutes has a double-digit defensive rebound charge, and when Carter returns, he ought to solely enhance issues. Within the meantime, the Bitadze reclamation undertaking has paid sudden dividends within the type of a 6.6 % block charge within the center.
The draw back to the Magic’s hyper protection is that they foul with abandon too — Anthony and Suggs have two of the best charges within the league amongst guards, and when you have been studying this, Mo Wagner simply received known as for an additional blocking foul making an attempt to take a cost. The Magic have been extraordinarily lucky this hasn’t labored out worse for them; their league-leading “free-throw protection” of 73.6 % can’t be anticipated to proceed. The Magic even have performed a smooth early schedule, with seven of their first 20 video games coming in opposition to the league’s eight bottom-feeders.
However, they’ve already overwhelmed Boston, Denver and Milwaukee. Successful 14 out of 20 in opposition to anyone on this league is a really optimistic knowledge level, particularly when supported by a strong victory margin.
Cut up the distinction, and perhaps a pessimist would say the Magic are solely “actually” a .500-ish group, fairly than one which’s on tempo for 57 wins. Guess what: That’s nonetheless superior, as a result of they’ve already banked 14 wins. If Orlando goes 31-31 the remainder of the way in which, it’s seemingly a top-six seed within the East.
As with the Rockets above and the Thunder under, you possibly can’t ignore teaching both. Jamahl Mosley has maxed out what gave the impression to be a fairly restricted offensive arsenal, and for a younger group, the Magic make surprisingly few errors at both finish. I don’t assume they’ve the endurance to hold with Boston and Philly within the standings all season, but when that’s the bar, then they’ve already wildly exceeded expectations. So long as they get even quasi-decent taking pictures, a top-six seed appears fully sensible.
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
Of all these groups, the Thunder (13-6) warrant probably the most dialogue, as a result of they’re the most effective of those three groups proper now and have the best long-term ceiling of the bunch. I used to be pretty pessimistic on the Thunder coming into the season, and it appeared they agreed with me based mostly on their offseason strategy.
As an alternative, they’re a 12 months forward of schedule: So far, they’ve the second-best report within the West, balancing issues on each side by rating fourth in offense and sixth in protection. By Monday’s video games, they have been solely 0.03 factors behind the Celtics for the NBA’s finest scoring margin.
That degree of dominance alone is a prima facie case for a group to be an actual, inner-circle contender, not simply on a, “Hey, they’re higher!” checklist. What’s superb is that they’ve completed this with out grabbing a single rebound. OK, I child, however not by a lot: Oklahoma Metropolis is twenty eighth in offensive rebounding and twenty ninth in defensive rebounding.
As an alternative, underappreciated wizard Mark Daigneault has leveraged small ball to devastating impact, being by far probably the most prepared coach within the league to throw warning to the wind and play a 5-foot-3 man at heart. He’ll typically roll with lineups which have Isaiah Joe (6-3) on the 4 or Jalen Williams (6-5) on the 5, particularly in opposition to second models, and gamble that the opponent can’t sustain. Normally, he’s proper.
As with the opposite groups above, taking pictures variance is probably going a part of the story. Thunder opponents are taking pictures 34.6 % from 3 — the league’s sixth-best mark — and this issues extra of their case due to the sheer amount Oklahoma Metropolis permits; solely three groups allow extra per 100 possessions. As for the standard of these 3s, the Thunder surrender the next proportion of opponent 3s from the nook than any group within the league; these are inclined to nearly all be open photographs which are left to the whim of the 3-point gods and usually go in additional typically than above-the-break makes an attempt. For the Thunder to have that form of profile and nonetheless rank sixth general in opponent share is … lucky.
Capturing variance on the offensive finish, nonetheless, is the extra attention-grabbing story. The Thunder are taking pictures an NBA-best 40.2 % on 3s this season, with the assistance of dramatic enchancment from a number of gamers. Are these small-sample outliers, or are they actual? Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace all are taking pictures much better than their historic averages. So is Joe, who leads the group in makes an attempt and is making a case as one of many biggest waiver pickups ever by making 46.0 % from downtown.
However … these all are gamers of their early 20s who is likely to be anticipated to enhance. Moreover, the Thunder poached taking pictures swami Chip Engelland from San Antonio earlier than final season after ending lifeless final in 3-point taking pictures in 2021-22; is it attainable that rent is already paying huge dividends within the type of improved accuracy? It’s one of many largest tales to observe over the ultimate 60ish video games, given the implications for the remainder of the West.
Apart from taking pictures variance, nonetheless, there’s one far, far less complicated cause the Thunder have vastly exceeded expectations to this point: Holmgren is absolutely, actually good.
As a lot hype as Victor Wembanyama received coming into the season, and nearly as good as I count on him to be long run, the Rookie of the Yr race proper now isn’t actually a lot of a race. Holmgren has been a plug-and-play star from the phrase go, on a roster whose most evident weak spot was the shortage of a middle and the shortage of an actual second star behind Gilgeous-Alexander, who himself has taken one other step ahead at each ends and pushed into the fringes of the MVP race.)
Watch this play in opposition to Dallas on Saturday, a nine-second sequence that basically gained the sport for OKC.
Holmgren reaches up towards Saturn to reject a floater by A.J. Lawson that I’m positive he thought had zero probability of getting blocked, however that was solely half the enjoyable: Relatively than finger-wagging and watching the break unfold, Holmgren instantly received on his horse and materialized underneath the rim on the different finish to gather a put-back dunk after fellow rookie Dereck Vigorous II had made a spectacular block of his personal on Dort. (Facet observe: How enjoyable will it’s watching the Holmgren-Wembanyama-Şengün-Vigorous wars within the Northwest Division over the subsequent decade?)
Along with checking a roster field at heart and offering a floor-spacing 5 to maintain the ground open for Gilgeous-Alexander’s off-kilter sorcery, Holmgren’s rim-protection impression on a group that’s in any other case badly undersized is tough to overstate; the Thunder are at present sixth in opponent taking pictures within the restricted space, and that tends to be far more steady than opponent 3-point taking pictures.
The Chet-SGA duo is already an elite inside-outside combo, one which takes the stress off the secondary Thunder gamers to be one thing they’re not … or no less than not but. (Jalen Williams specifically, might nonetheless have one other degree.) There’s at all times the lingering worry that one other Holmgren damage disaster hits, I suppose, or that the unfavourable rebounding margin turns into an unsustainable drag, however you possibly can say that about any group.
So, sure, the taking pictures luck will in all probability even out in ways in which make it tough for the Thunder to maintain a plus-7 margin all season. Right here’s the factor: That may be a enormous margin that provides a full Santa go well with price of cushion. As an illustration, even when they solely performed at a plus-3 margin the remainder of the way in which, that’s nonetheless a 50-win tempo, they usually’ve already banked a 13-6 begin. Do the maths, and also you arrive at 51 wins and a possible top-three seed within the West, relying on whether or not a few different groups can get their acts collectively.
Don’t take that estimate too severely: That’s for a hypothetical victory margin given many, many assumptions, and issues at all times get messier as soon as we roll the balls out and play actual video games. However the big-picture takeaway is obvious: It’s fairly attainable the Thunder are each fortunate and good, and the “good” half is the extra outstanding issue.
Within the case of all three groups, their shock begins seem like extra actual than mirage. Absolutely, the Rockets and Magic aren’t going away anytime quickly. However within the case of the Thunder, there’s an opportunity their begin is one thing much more: A 2011-type flashback to the speedy emergence of a brand new contender.
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(High pictures of Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Fred VanVleet: Jerome Miron, Nathan Ray Seebeck, Erik Williams / USA At this time)
