On Sunday, Miami will belong to Argentina and Colombia, not both/or. However the end result of the 2024 Copa America remaining will inevitably drive one in every of two unresolvable narratives: Do the accomplishments of Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina place them among the many best nationwide groups of all time? Or have a seemingly unbeatable Colombia arrived at a paradigm-shifting second of their soccer historical past?
Accustomed to extremely aggressive soccer the place nothing is forgiven if a title isn’t gained, the 2024 Copa America remaining will provide an distinctive scenario: it options two groups which have already completed a lot of their targets. The inherent motivation for a trophy stays intact, however the advantage of not counting on a single match to sign constructive growth fuels hopes for an thrilling remaining.
Argentina are of their golden period, making an attempt to turn into the primary South American nationwide group to win three straight main tournaments together with a World Cup and first globally since Spain from 2008-12 to encircle a World Cup title with consecutive continental crowns. La Albiceleste might additionally turn into the primary nation to win 16 editions of the Copa America, breaking the impasse with Uruguay at 15.
Doing so would proceed a 41-year sample of Copa winners. Since 1983, the event has adopted a selected sequence of champions: One group wins two consecutive tournaments, then one other group wins a single event, and this sample repeats. Uruguay gained in 1983 and 1987, Brazil gained in 1989, Argentina gained in 1991 and 1993, and so forth as much as Chile successful in 2015 and the 2016 Centenario, Brazil successful in 2019, and Argentina successful in 2021.
For the reason that 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Argentina have reached no less than the semi-finals in all main tournaments besides the 2018 World Cup and have been accumulating titles for the reason that 2021 Copa America. First, they took the Copa America from Brazil on their dwelling soil, then they defeated Italy within the Finalissima at Wembley, and at last, they gained the 2022 World Cup in Qatar after a match in opposition to France that ranks among the many best finals in main event historical past.
That remaining meant one thing to soccer followers globally, nevertheless it meant one thing extra inside Argentina. 1986 World Cup winner Jorge Valdano’s well-known saying, “Soccer is crucial of the least necessary issues,” appears understated in Argentina, the place the nationwide group’s achievements have been the one widespread pleasure for its folks in recent times. The top was when over six million folks took to the streets to rejoice the World Cup, a scene comparable solely to the nation’s most important milestones, just like the Bicentennial of Independence in 2010 or the return of democracy within the early Eighties.
It’s a nation wherein a lot revolves round soccer, with all its constructive and detrimental implications. However given this context, folks can’t ask far more from Lionel Scaloni’s group. Until a humiliation happens (such because the 5-0 loss to Colombia that almost excluded them from the 1994 World Cup), there can be no main complaints if Argentina don’t retain the title. There could also be no higher circumstances for letting the soccer movement freely.
Critics getting into the match might point out their wrestle in opposition to their first sturdy opponent, their poor efficiency in opposition to Ecuador, and the truth that their friendlies had been in opposition to groups like Curaçao or Guatemala, quite than European powerhouses. Probably the most detrimental voices will declare that the group is “nonetheless partying” and that Lionel Messi, now 37 years previous at Inter Miami, now not takes soccer as severely as earlier than.
One thing related, although on a far completely different scale, is occurring with Colombia. La Tricolor struggled enormously after the departure of coach José Pekerman in 2018. Underneath the management of Reinaldo Rueda, they may not get better and ended up lacking out on the Qatar World Cup. Néstor Lorenzo, Pekerman’s former low-profile assistant, took over with out a lot fanfare however has since constructed an undefeated streak of 25 matches. Including the three matches inherited from his predecessor, this constitutes the longest unbeaten run in Colombia’s historical past, adorned by victories in opposition to high-level opponents: a 2-0 win in opposition to Germany, a 2-1 win in opposition to Brazil and a 1-0 win in opposition to Spain. There was the 5-1 thrashing of the US, and naturally the impressed 1-0 win over Uruguay this week to succeed in the ultimate.
However there’s the apparent distinction that continues to be: Certainly one of these groups has gained up to date main tournaments to enrich a historical past of such achievements. The opposite has not.
The Colombian Path
Colombia confidently superior by way of the group stage starting with a slender win in opposition to a persistent Paraguay, defeated Costa Rica, who had simply annoyed Brazil in a goalless recreation, and drew with Brazil in a match they in all probability deserved to win (1.17-0.37 xG). Within the quarter-finals, they swiftly neutralised Panama (5-0, with two targets within the first 10 minutes), who had reached the knockouts after defeating the US and Bolivia.
What adopted Colombia’s first-half purpose and pink card mixture within the semi-finals was a monologue by the Uruguayans, who held 73% possession, experimenting with numerous tactical adjustments, together with bringing on Guillermo Varela for the injured Rodrigo Betancur and later substituting Varela for Luis Suárez. Regardless of their efforts, they resorted to crossing the ball to the tandem of Darwin Núñez and Suárez whereas Colombia repeatedly spared Uruguay’s life on the counter-attack, together with two missed alternatives by Mateus Uribe of a mixed 0.58 xG, each after the eighty fifth minute.
At one other level of their historical past, Colombia, at all times valued for his or her approach however criticised for lack of focus in key moments, would have been eradicated when defending three-quarters of the match with 10 males in opposition to a tricky opponent. Right here, Lorenzo’s group stood tall, held on as greatest they may with the three most harmful gamers on the pitch, after which, after James Rodríguez had given all the pieces, shaped a again 5.
They reached the ultimate and celebrated with the vary of feelings befitting of getting gained a contentious championship: mocking their rivals, dancing within the locker room, and even James shedding comprehensible tears. He’d been closely criticised earlier than the event and made it to his first remaining with a purpose and tournament-record six assists (relationship to 2011) to turn into the standout participant of the Copa America to date with tournament-highs seven targets involvements and 17 probabilities created.
Regardless of the end result of the ultimate, his redemption is irrefutable. And if Colombia don’t defeat Argentina within the remaining, they are going to nonetheless be warmly welcomed by their folks, a lot of whom will see the nationwide group in a serious event remaining for the primary time. When Colombia gained the Copa America at dwelling in 2001, Argentina had been absent, and the primary contenders had been what amounted to a Brazilian B group, Honduras and Mexico. This time, Colombia haven’t solely reached the ultimate by way of an expanded 16-team subject however accomplished so whereas going through the hardest path.
Colombia convey the instruments to problem Argentina, even in areas the place the present World champions sometimes excel, resembling ball possession. Earlier than their match with Uruguay, La Tricolor averaged 57% possession, sustaining management even when forward, opposite to typical recreation state developments in soccer. Argentina’s worst second got here within the second half in opposition to Ecuador once they misplaced management of the ball, complicating a match they may solely win by counting on Emiliano ‘Dibu’ Martínez in a penalty shootout.
Past the outcomes, it was when every finalist imposed their dynamism on the ball that they gained benefits. Each achieve this from related kinds of play: they’ve the longest common passes per sequence within the Copa (4.3 for Argentina, 3.3 for Colombia), with Lorenzo’s group being a bit extra direct (1.27 meters per second) than La Albiceleste (0.97 direct pace). The group that manages to impose its recreation upon the opposite within the midfield will doubtless have the benefit in Sunday’s match.
That’s notably related on this matchup as a result of, with out possession, Argentina are far more uncomfortable than the 2021 group, which performed extra on the counter. This may be attributable to Messi not being in ideally suited bodily situation, shedding affect if the group doesn’t management the sport. In truth, in opposition to Ecuador, he had his least lively 90 minutes in a event with the nationwide group, with simply 32 touches.
Canada’s Alphonso Davies, even with out taking part in at his greatest, was a headache for the Argentines within the opening match. Colombia’s Daniel Muñoz, who performs for Crystal Palace, had been having an ideal event (two targets, 21 tackles and 18 duels gained) and was set to be a key participant within the remaining, however his pink card in opposition to Uruguay dominated him out. It stays to be seen if Argentina will follow the 4-3-3 formation that gained in Qatar or if, as they’ve accomplished in current matches, Ángel Di María will play as a fourth midfielder, decreasing publicity on the flanks.
After which, after all, there are the set-pieces which have turn into a narrative inside the story for Colombia with 5 targets (excluding penalties) in 5 matches.
The Calm (and Scare) of the World Champion
Argentina confronted few challenges within the group stage, aside from a short interval in opposition to Canada within the opening match the place Messi was surprisingly erratic (6 photographs, 0.64 xG, no targets) and the second half in opposition to Chile, the place the group struggled to transform their probabilities (1.96 xG, 1 purpose). Lautaro Martínez was the standout participant on this stage, scoring 4 targets in simply 121 minutes, with just one begin (in opposition to Peru).
Within the quarter-finals, Ecuador, underneath the steering of Spanish coach Félix Sánchez (previously with Qatar), had proven glimpses of a extra positional recreation. Nevertheless, in opposition to Argentina, they resembled the extraordinary type from the Qatar World Cup qualifiers underneath Gustavo Alfaro. With Enner Valencia main the assault, issues obtained sophisticated for La Albiceleste from the beginning. Lisandro Martínez’s purpose from a nook appeared to settle issues, they usually had a couple of probabilities to seal the match within the first half, however Lautaro wasn’t sharp.
The second half was a special story, with La Tri shifting to a Louis Van Gaal-style strategy, deploying 4 forwards and bombarding Argentina with crosses. Ecuador first squandered an opportunity when Valencia hit the submit along with his penalty, then equalised late by way of Kevin Rodríguez after quite a few crosses. Within the penalty shootout, Emiliano Martínez lived as much as his current status, saving two penalties and bringing his tally to eight saves out of 18 makes an attempt in shootouts with the nationwide group.
Within the semi-finals in opposition to the acquainted Canada, Argentina noticed a extra lively Messi (by half-time, he had almost the identical variety of touches as in your complete recreation in opposition to Ecuador) and began Julián Álvarez once more, who, regardless of scoring much less, contributes extra to the performance of the Scaloneta. Notably, Álvarez is by far the participant with essentially the most high-intensity pressures per 90 minutes for Argentina (61.8), considerably greater than Lautaro (44.6) and, after all, many greater than Messi (22.5).
One other key participant on this regard is Rodrigo De Paul, who more and more earns the ire of his opponents with every recreation but in addition contributes extra to the group, being the second-highest presser (55.5) and the chief in line-breaking passes (11.2), particularly these breaking the midfield and attacking traces, just like the one which allowed Julián Álvarez to open the scoring in opposition to Canada.
De Paul is the one survivor of the unique Scaloneta midfield, which included Roma’s Leandro Paredes and former Rosario Central’s Giovani Lo Celso. They had been changed extra attributable to circumstances (accidents, suspensions) than efficiency in the course of the World Cup, with the emergence of Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández. On this Copa America, all have performed, with Liverpool’s quantity 10 exhibiting essentially the most constant efficiency and De Paul the extra unpredictable. Of all of the options Scaloni has tried, the simplest midfield appears to be the one which closed the World Cup in Qatar, with Fernández because the pivot and Mac Allister and De Paul as interiors.
After which there’s Di María, taking part in his remaining main event with the nationwide group, who usually joins this midfield relying on the state of the match. A lot has been mentioned and written concerning the former Actual Madrid participant, so right here’s one thing completely different concerning the 36-year-old who nonetheless reveals incisive flashes: On this Copa, he leads all gamers in possession worth per 90 minutes (0.42). Whether or not utilizing new or basic metrics, Di María at all times stands out. That’s not a straightforward accomplishment by way of a profession working in parallel with Messi.
They had been there collectively in 2014 in defeat to Germany and thru the uncertainty round Scaloni following their 2019 Copa America semi-final exit. They had been there collectively to lastly rejoice in 2021 and 2022.
Three years on from an intense however usually unattractive remaining between Argentina and Brazil wherein stress bubbled over, this 12 months’s Copa America remaining feels more likely to ship an exhilarating showdown, befitting of the event’s long-tail historical past and expectations. It usually stands in distinction to the European Championship. The person brilliance of the gamers, the tactical methods of the coaches, the colourful ambiance from the big contingent of Argentine and Colombian followers in Miami, and the liberty of taking part in with out the gravity of unmet aims might make this remaining unmissable.
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