The NBA’s 2023-24 season is about to hit its midway level, and it’s time for Half II of The Athletic’s midseason assessment, together with predictions for the longer term.
As we speak, we’re diving into the upcoming commerce deadline, the gamers and groups with probably the most to show and the groups we count on to achieve the NBA Finals.
To maintain issues going, we’ve assembled three of our writers: Kelly Iko in Houston, Jason Fast in Portland and Josh Robbins in Washington.
What league storyline has intrigued you most up to now this season?
Kelly Iko: I believe Tuesday’s slate of video games — the extremely anticipated Joel Embiid/Nikola Jokić matchup, an exciting Kevin Durant-led fourth-quarter comeback win for the Suns and a wire-to-wire Thunder/Clippers tilt that includes classic Paul George — accentuates the elevated state of the sport at the moment and, extra importantly, thrusts the MVP debate to the forefront.
After a sport by which Embiid put up one other masterclass efficiency — 41 factors, seven rebounds and 10 assists and Jokić additionally stuffed the stat sheet with 25 factors and 19 rebounds — it was fairly refreshing to listen to Embiid heaping reward on Jokić after the ultimate buzzer, a wholesome shift from the everyday vitriol that infests social media when discussing these two superstars. These two generational massive males have dominated the MVP panorama for the previous three seasons and are the highest candidates in 2023-24. Embiid has diversified his sport thanks partially to new head coach Nick Nurse, and Jokić continues to place up online game numbers in his sleep and carries a top-10 offense.
However Embiid lathering Jokić with plaudits is vital. The reigning MVP sees Jokić as the very best participant on this planet after a dominating common season and carrying that superb type deep into the postseason, one thing Embiid hasn’t been in a position to do exactly but. And these aren’t the one gamers within the league enjoying on the peak of their powers — Durant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, the record goes on. The league is in good arms proper now.
Jason Fast: Name me a sicko, however I used to be gripped by the Pistons’ 28-game shedding streak. I checked nightly to see how they have been doing, and in the event that they have been in a sport, I attempted to tune in. For a lot of the Pistons’ spiral, the Spurs additionally have been spinning, at one level shedding 18 in a row. Can’t say I keep in mind two groups being so futile on the identical time, so I oddly turned intrigued at how unhealthy they’re.
Josh Robbins: I used to be fascinated by the rollout and execution of the inaugural NBA In-Season Event. League officers confronted a difficult query: What’s one of the simplest ways to introduce an idea that’s principally overseas to a North American viewers? Soccer followers in Europe and soccer aficionados in North America are aware of competitions resembling England’s FA Cup and Spain’s Copa del Rey, however the notion of a event that runs parallel to (and on this case, along with) a daily season was a largely remarkable concept for these of us raised on North America’s largest professional sports activities leagues.
So, naturally, the league had quite a lot of educating to do, and given the complexity of the duty — with each In-Season Event sport apart from the championship counting towards groups’ regular-season data — there was some confusion amongst followers and some gamers, particularly at first.
As has been said elsewhere, significantly on “Pardon the Interruption,” the event gained added credibility largely as a result of LeBron James competed onerous and his group gained it and since Tyrese Haliburton solidified himself as one of many sport’s rising stars.
The reality is, it’s a lot too early to say the event goes to be one thing the overwhelming majority of NBA followers look ahead to yr in and yr out. Whether or not that may occur can solely be decided over time. However I don’t assume there’s any doubt that the event was, on the naked minimal, a novel experiment, and it has earned an opportunity to mature and evolve.
It was morbid theatre at instances, however the Detroit Pistons’ 28-game shedding streak was one of the intriguing storylines of the primary half of the 2023-24 NBA season. (Rick Osentoski / USA As we speak)
Which group or particular person has probably the most to show from now till the top of the common season?
Iko: It feels prefer it’s the Clippers each season, however this is the season. This needs to be the yr the celebrities align — no pun meant — and so they lastly go on the NBA Finals run we’ve anticipated ever since Kawhi Leonard and George joined forces.
Now that they’ve added James Harden into the combo and seemingly tied all their roster flexibility to those three, there’s no turning again. Sure, they’ve the league’s No. 1 offense this month. We’ve been right here earlier than with this group. Can they get it carried out within the playoffs? This could be their finest — and final — likelihood.
Fast: Draymond Inexperienced. Can the mercurial Golden State ahead comprise his feelings and mood after his suspension and lacking 16 video games? And if he can, does the brand new, muted Inexperienced have the identical affect because the one who was a key piece to the Warriors’ dynasty? The one certainty is that Inexperienced has rather a lot to show on each fronts as he tries to stroll the superb line between being fiery and being a distraction.
Robbins: It’s the Lakers — and significantly, James, whose on-court legacy is safe many instances over. However now that he’s 39 years previous, and now that the Lakers are 21-21 and are teetering on the sting of lacking the Western Convention Play-In, the questions on whether or not he can carry a group will solely intensify. That’s the way in which it goes with getting older athletes, even the nice ones.
There are lots of people inside the Lakers beneath scrutiny lately, together with govt Rob Pelinka and coach Darvin Ham. However James overshadows all of them. Can he and Anthony Davis elevate the Lakers into the standard eight-team playoffs once more, both by avoiding the Play-In altogether or by enjoying their approach by way of the Play-In? James little doubt hears the skepticism. And little doubt, he’ll use that skepticism as motivation. The good ones at all times do. However is he nonetheless nice sufficient to harness that motivation into outcomes? That’s the query he and the Lakers should reply.
The commerce deadline is three weeks away. Identify a group that should make an impactful transfer.
Iko: I do know it’s taboo to counsel the Thunder rush issues or dip their toes into the commerce market, however haven’t we discovered something from the previous? Nothing on this league is assured. Once you’re scorching, it’s important to strike. Particularly when you may make a powerful argument that the Western Convention is vast open.
Tuesday evening’s loss to the Clippers, whereas an entertaining sport, provided a glimpse into what the postseason may appear like for the Thunder. Groups are going to load up on Gilgeous-Alexander and swarm the paint, forcing kick-outs to anybody else and daring them to beat them. Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe have been superior and have been this season, however I nonetheless assume Oklahoma Metropolis may use one other three-level scorer, even when to alleviate the load on SGA’s shoulders. He’s been phenomenal however his 31,1 % utilization charge is sky-high, and we’ve seen what occurs with guards within the playoffs who’ve that a lot weight on their shoulders within the common season. I’m certain Thunder followers would shudder on the considered including a Zach LaVine kind, however what about Dejounte Murray? It’s not the craziest factor on this planet.
Fast: The Lakers. Hovering round .500 with LeBron and Davis having standout seasons, the Lakers are in determined want of some assist earlier than their championship window closes. Particularly, the Lakers may use some taking pictures. The Lakers are twenty eighth within the league in 3-pointers per sport (10.9) and twentieth in 3-point share whereas rating twenty second in offensive ranking.
Robbins: I’m much more bullish on the 76ers’ probabilities to achieve the NBA Finals than most individuals. Sure, the Celtics have been excellent this season. And sure, having Damian Lillard helps the Bucks create offense when the tempo slows down within the playoffs. However I imagine the Sixers are proper on the Celtics’ and Bucks’ heels and may beat both of these groups in a best-of-seven sequence. As The Athletic has famous earlier than, I believe Philly would profit from buying and selling for a two-way wing with measurement — somebody who can hit an open 3 and make the likes of Tatum and Jaylen Brown work onerous for his or her factors. There’s a motive why everybody desires these 3-and-D varieties: they’re that vital, significantly come playoff time.
LeBron James and the Lakers face a difficult second half of their season. (Gary A. Vasquez / USA As we speak)
A few caveats earlier than the subsequent query: the affect of the commerce deadline and the way an damage impacts a group. Sadly, accidents can by no means be taken out of the sport. However having seen what you’ve seen up to now this season, which Japanese Convention group do you count on to achieve the NBA Finals?
Iko: As enjoyable because the 76ers have been, I nonetheless don’t assume they’ve sufficient to go all the way in which, however I don’t see a motive why the Bucks don’t have sufficient firepower to come back out of the East. It’s a stretch calling a celebrity like Damian Lillard an X-factor, however Milwaukee has by no means had a shotmaker of that caliber, who as soon as once more reminded us that “Dame Time” by no means stopped, it simply moved from the Pacific to Central time zone. He’ll single-handedly win them a number of playoff video games together with his clutch genes.
Their protection has plummeted with out Jrue Vacation in addition to Brook Lopez’s age, however the Bucks nonetheless have a top-two offense and I don’t assume we’ve even seen the very best model of that but. Spam Lillard/Giannis pick-and-rolls till you’ll be able to’t anymore.
Fast: Boston. Essentially the most full group within the league. The Celtics rank second in defensive ranking and third in offensive ranking and have gained their first 20 residence video games. After shedding within the 2022 NBA Finals and the convention finals final season, the tandem of Tatum and Brown ought to be hardened and decided for the upcoming playoff run. That run ought to profit from the protection of Vacation, who might be invaluable within the playoffs in neutralizing potential matchups in opposition to East guards Lillard, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson.
Robbins: I’m going with the Sixers. Joel Embiid is a matchup drawback for anybody, and I believe he would be the most dominant participant within the East in these playoffs.
Which Western Convention group will attain the NBA Finals?
Iko: I believe the Suns, which have quietly gained seven of their final 10 video games, will proceed on this upward trajectory and stabilize themselves come postseason time. Head coach Frank Vogel deployed Durant at middle for a stretch within the comeback win over the Kings and it actually seems like a tactical weapon to maintain. Between Durant and Devin Booker alone, they’ve sufficient firepower to offer any opposing group suits over a seven-game sequence.
Can Bradley Beal be wholesome and out there? That’s the actual query. However the Suns’ two-headed monster can beat you from anyplace on the ground and has proven sufficient playmaking to take a backseat and facilitate when the opposite is heating up. I don’t love their depth outdoors of the starters (Grayson Allen!) and nonetheless assume they should make yet another transfer earlier than the deadline, however I wouldn’t wish to be on the opposite sideline in opposition to these guys in Could.
Fast: The Clippers. With the mixing of Harden full, the Clippers look formidable. It’s onerous to see a group with the personnel to cease Harden, Leonard and George over a seven-game sequence, and it’s important to determine Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell or Terance Mann can have a game-changing efficiency alongside the way in which. If LA can improve at middle, look out. With Ty Lue game-planning on the sideline, the Clippers might be a tricky out.
Robbins: The Denver Nuggets will return to the NBA Finals. The Timberwolves and Thunder have been wonderful tales, and so they’ll be formidable opponents within the postseason. However they’re additionally younger, and the NBA historically has been a league the place even the best, most gifted groups needed to take some playoff lumps and construct playoff expertise earlier than they lastly break by way of.
The Nuggets have carried out it earlier than. What would fear me about them, nevertheless, is their depth. However I nonetheless assume Jokić, Jamal Murray and their teammates will emerge from the West. It could make issues extra comfy if they might safe home-court benefit for the playoffs, however given their expertise, I don’t assume that’s vital for them.
(Prime photograph of Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid: Invoice Streicher / USA As we speak)
