What are the Chiefs’ probabilities of pulling off a three-peat? Who has the very best likelihood of knocking them off? Our mannequin solutions these questions and all its NFL season predictions for the 2024 marketing campaign.
Ever since Mecole Hardman crossed the objective line to take down the San Francisco 49ers in an time beyond regulation basic in February, there’s been one factor on the thoughts of Kansas Metropolis Chiefs gamers and followers alike – a three-peat.
As Patrick Mahomes mentioned in his Tremendous Bowl parade speech, no group has ever gained three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. Are his Chiefs slated to be the primary?
Beneath, we’ll break down simply how possible that is, and who has the very best likelihood to get in the best way of Kansas Metropolis doing the unprecedented.
The Historical past In opposition to Them
Whereas it’s true that no group has gained three consecutive Tremendous Bowls, there even have been a few back-to-back-to-back champions in NFL historical past. The Inexperienced Bay Packers gained three straight championships from 1965-67, however as a result of 1966 was the primary season of the Tremendous Bowl period, they technically didn’t win three straight Tremendous Bowls.
In different phrases, 1965 was the ultimate season throughout which the champions of the AFL and NFL (now referred to as the AFC and NFC) didn’t play one another, which means Inexperienced Bay’s season was finished after successful the equal of the present NFC championship sport.
The truth is, this wasn’t even the Packers’ solely three-peat. From 1929-31, earlier than there was even a postseason, the Packers gained three straight NFL championships through having the league’s finest regular-season file.
As for the trendy period, although, eight prior groups have tried and did not win a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl: the 1968 Packers, 1974 Miami Dolphins, 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1980 Steelers, 1990 49ers, 1994 Dallas Cowboys, 1999 Denver Broncos, and 2005 New England Patriots. 5 of these eight reached the playoffs the subsequent season, although none of them made it to the Tremendous Bowl.
It’s additionally price noting that out of the three who missed the playoffs, one misplaced their head coach (Vince Lombardi resigned from the Packers earlier than the 1968 season), and one misplaced their beginning quarterback (John Elway retired earlier than the 1999 season). As such, the one group to return its head coach and beginning QB however nonetheless miss the playoffs was the 1980 Steelers, who went 9-7 however missed out in spite of everything 5 AFC playoff groups had not less than 11 wins.
Although no group has pulled off the three-peat, it’s truthful to say the 1990 49ers have been the closest. After a dominant 14-2 common season during which Joe Montana gained his second straight NFL MVP, they have been surprised 15-13 within the NFC championship by the Lawrence Taylor-led New York Giants. That is certainly one of three situations of a group chasing a 3rd straight Tremendous Bowl title being eradicated by the group that went on to win that 12 months – together with the 1976 Steelers (misplaced to the Oakland Raiders) and 1994 Cowboys (misplaced to the 49ers).
Concurrently, it’s price noting that the final group to succeed in three straight Tremendous Bowls was the Patriots from 2016-18. New England gained within the 2016 and 2018 seasons, sandwiching a 41-33 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on the finish of the 2017 season.
The place the Chiefs Stand
Precisely what are the Chiefs’ probabilities of being the primary to drag this off? Our mannequin combines every group’s QB EVE with its collective EVE (effectivity vs. anticipated) and different superior knowledge to calculate a projected win proportion throughout all video games.
What it tells us is that the Chiefs’ 89.6% likelihood of constructing the playoffs is the second highest, within the NFL, as is their common complete of 11.0 regular-season wins throughout our hundreds of simulations.
When it comes to successful the Tremendous Bowl, we give them a ten.9% likelihood – the third better of any NFL group coming into the season.
Will the Offense Bounce Again?
It’s simple to neglect this primarily based on how the playoffs ended, however the truth of the matter is that the 2023 Chiefs offense was the worst the franchise had seen in years. Even within the Tremendous Bowl win in opposition to San Francisco, the group solely scored one landing in regulation, and that landing got here on a drive that began on the 49ers’ 16-yard line following a fumbled punt.
Simply how completely different have been issues final 12 months? In yearly between 2017-22, the Chiefs completed the common season ranked within the prime six in each factors per sport and complete yards per sport, together with No. 1 general ranks in each metrics in 2022. In 2023, these ranks have been means right down to fifteenth in scoring and ninth in complete offense.
These are removed from probably the most superior methods to guage offenses these days, however Kansas Metropolis additionally ranked a pedestrian eleventh in offensive EVE.
As such, the offense will possible have to get again to its pre-2023 ranges for the Chiefs to have a shot at historical past, and that every one begins with the person beneath middle. Throughout Mahomes’ six years because the starter, he completed 2023 with career-low values in virtually each typical passing stat, together with cross yards per try (7.0), passer ranking (92.6), cross yards per sport (261.4), ESPN’s QBR (63.1), TD-INT ratio (27-14) and extra.
Most mortal quarterbacks would gladly take these numbers, however they have been a far cry from the Mahomes whom followers had been accustomed to.
From an analytical perspective, a regarding pattern for Mahomes has been a steep decline in downfield passing. Mahomes completed final season with a career-low 6.94 air yards per try, however regardless of that, his catchable throw charge was solely 80.1% – his lowest since 2019.
There are two core causes a bounce again is looming, although. One is the sheer incontrovertible fact that we’ve seen him do it earlier than. 5 years of elite manufacturing is a a lot bigger pattern measurement than one 12 months of being human, so now we have thorough cause to imagine the “actual Mahomes” is best than what we noticed in 2023.
The opposite one is the thorough personnel overhaul that the remainder of his offense has seen. After the huge receivers have been usually the topic of criticism final season, Kansas Metropolis re-tooled by drafting speedster Xavier Worthy from Texas within the first spherical, together with signing Marquise Brown as a free agent from the Arizona Cardinals.
If the objective was to extend the group’s willingness to stretch the ball downfield, it was exhausting to ask for a a lot sooner pair of wideouts to assist in that trigger.
A Younger, Elite Protection
How did the Chiefs handle to win their second straight title with an offense that was merely barely above common? As a result of the opposite facet of the ball was the simplest it had been in a really very long time.
Coming into 2023, the Chiefs had by no means ranked within the prime 10 in complete protection in Mahomes’ profession, and their highest rank in scoring protection over that span was seventh in 2019. Final season, they ranked second within the NFL in each metrics – their first time ending within the prime 5 in each since means again in 1995.
In addition they ranked fifth general in defensive EVE. And maybe most impressively of all, of their 21 video games (17 common season, 4 postseason), they by no means allowed greater than 27 factors.
It’s true that latest analysis has indicated that defensive success is way much less sustainable on a year-to-year foundation than offensive success. However with these Chiefs particularly, there are causes for hope.
For one, youth. The oldest defensive participant to begin a sport for the group final season was defensive deal with Chris Jones, who turned 30 earlier this summer time.
One other is roster continuity. Although cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (Tennessee Titans) and linebacker Willie Homosexual Jr. (New Orleans Saints) discovered new houses in free company this offseason, the remainder of the defensive core is again, as a ridiculous run of latest NFL Draft hits has led to a number of proficient gamers nonetheless on rookie contracts.
And another is the coach answerable for that facet of the ball. Steve Spagnuolo is the primary coach to win 4 Tremendous Bowls as a coordinator, with three of these coming with the Chiefs, and his genius has been well-documented.
Who Can Dethrone Them?
Earlier, we revealed that the Chiefs’ Tremendous Bowl likelihood wasn’t fairly tops within the NFL coming into the season.
Who’s forward of them? The group that was inches away from taking Kansas Metropolis down in February.
Our mannequin handily sees operating again Christian McCaffrey, quarterback Brock Purdy and the 49ers because the favorites to take the title house, as their 24.1% likelihood of successful all of it is sort of double the next-closest group (Baltimore Ravens, 12.7%). Whereas a few San Francisco’s stars have been embroiled in commerce rumors, the group nonetheless arguably has the game’s most proficient roster, a notion which our mannequin backed up.
In addition to the 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs, the opposite two groups with not less than a 6.0% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl are the Dolphins and Packers. A lot due to Mahomes’ former partner-in-crime, Tyreek Hill, Miami has been on a transparent upward trajectory not too long ago, making the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the primary time since 1997-2001.
As for the Packers, they have been a hair away from upsetting the 49ers in final season’s NFC divisional spherical and among the many hottest groups within the NFL on the finish of the 2023 common season, making them a smart darkish horse choose within the championship race.
Division Projections
As talked about, our mannequin initiatives the 49ers to complete forward of the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals within the NFC West and to be a real Tremendous Bowl contender.
Within the NFC North, Jordan Love and the Packers are predicted to upend the defending division champion Detroit Lions. The mannequin doesn’t see an enormous enchancment for the Chicago Bears regardless of drafting Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze and including Keenan Allen, the Chicago Bears are on the backside of the division with the Minnesota Vikings.
We additionally challenge Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons to be the brand new kings of the NFC South over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saints and Carolina Panthers.
Within the NFC East, it’s Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys again on prime as division champs over the New York Giants, Eagles and Washington Commanders. So it doesn’t see Philadelphia rebounding from final 12 months’s horrendous end.
Within the AFC, our mannequin predicts the Ravens over Russell Wilson and the Steelers, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns within the North.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins (10.0) reign within the AFC East over Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Payments and the Patriots.
The C.J. Stroud period is effectively underway with the Houston Texans projected to win the AFC South forward of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts.
And naturally, it’s the Chiefs within the AFC West adopted by Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers, the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos.
All in all, there are causes it’s exhausting to repeat – not to mention to three-peat. However not each earlier two-time reigning champion had the unbelievable stability that the Chiefs are blessed with.
With Andy Reid, Spagnuolo, Mahomes, and a major quantity of starters returning, it’s unattainable to argue that Kansas Metropolis doesn’t have not less than a puncher’s likelihood of constructing historical past. And after we’re speaking concerning the Chiefs come playoff time, a puncher’s likelihood is usually all they want.
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