Who must be probably the most proud of a transfer to a brand new backfield? We’re making an attempt to reply that query by which NFL operating backs joined a staff with a extra profitable operating sport and an offense that options backs extra.
The operating again panorama will look so much totally different in 2024.
Not as a result of there can be a brand new crop of rushers within the league, however as a result of a few of the prime gamers on the place joined new groups at an unprecedented price and can shake up the bottom sport within the NFL this season.
A complete of 13 starting-caliber operating backs both signed with or have been traded to a distinct staff this offseason, led by one-time dashing or scrimmage-yard leaders Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. Earlier than 2024, solely 16 complete operating backs with at the least 100 touches switched groups between 2021-23.
Whereas it’s unclear precisely why or how this unfolded — our greatest guesses are age, strategic shifts or a disagreement on the operating again market — many groups can be affected by the motion at this place. The gamers themselves will definitely see one thing occur to their manufacturing as properly — for higher or worse.
Traditionally, operating backs not often see rapid success on a brand new staff. Up to now three seasons, operating backs on new groups averaged simply 658.4 yards and 4.6 touchdowns (amongst 18 who rushed for greater than 100 instances). Solely six rushed for greater than 800 yards and simply two (D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery in 2023) eclipsed 1,000 yards.
Now, this might be much less about their conditions and extra about their utilization (solely 9 rushed greater than 150 instances of their first season and simply six did it greater than 200) however the level nonetheless stands.
For this train, we’ll check out 9 of the 13 starting-caliber operating backs and see in the event that they landed in a greater or worse state of affairs than the one they’d on their earlier staff. We in contrast two baseline statistics from every operating again’s outdated staff with its new one: run success proportion and run price.
Run success price being how usually a staff features a profitable play (50% of the yards to realize on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down) on a designed run play and run price being how usually it rushes the soccer total.
Basically, we’re whether or not or not a operating again joined a staff with both a kind of profitable operating sport and an offense that both options operating backs kind of.
So a “higher” state of affairs is extra about whether or not or not they’ll be put ready to succeed based mostly on how the offense is run. We additionally took under consideration whether or not or not a participant would slide into an RB1 position or committee and if the brand new staff has a rookie quarterback or not.
Listed here are 9 of these gamers. Those in a greater, worse and too-soon-know spot.
Higher Spot
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley earned the obvious improve this offseason when he made the intra-divisional transfer from the New York Giants to the Philadelphia Eagles. Not solely do the Eagles present Barkley with an 11.3% higher run success (based mostly on their 2023 offense), however the staff’s offense was additionally 4.3% extra run-focused than the Giants’ this previous season.
Now, there are some apparent caveats right here. Firstly, Kellen Moore is now the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. The opposite is the lack of middle Jason Kelce, who anchored the Eagles’ spectacular offensive line for 13 years earlier than he retired after the 2023 season.
It’s unclear how a lot of a task Moore could have in play-calling duties or how a lot his offense will trickle down from head coach Nick Sirianni. However Moore’s presence might influence the operating sport given the earlier offenses he ran with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023 and Dallas Cowboys in 2022.
Moore’s offense in Los Angeles was a catastrophe — particularly on the bottom. The Chargers’ run success was worse than the Giants in 2023 (31.4% for L.A. vs. 32.0% for New York). The run price was additionally barely much less, particularly given Justin Herbert’s acumen below middle and Austin Ekler’s declining effectivity.
Moore’s 2022 offense in Dallas was higher from an effectivity standpoint (a plus-4.5% distinction in contrast with the 2023 Giants) regardless of operating the ball simply as a lot as New York did a 12 months in the past.
Which means that Moore’s impact on the offense could be much more useful to Barkley given how profitable the Cowboys operating sport was for therefore a few years.
Kelce’s absence may additionally be a mitigating issue given his substitute performed alongside him in Philadelphia for the previous two years. Cam Jurgens, who the Eagles drafted within the second spherical two years in the past, began 31 video games and performed in 2,066 snaps at middle in faculty at Nebraska. Whereas he doesn’t have a lot NFL expertise on the place, he actually isn’t new to the position.
All this factors to Barkley remaining the most effective operating backs within the league. And this time, he’ll play for a squad with Tremendous Bowl aspirations.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry left a Tennessee Titans staff that tallied the second-most dashing makes an attempt within the NFL since 2017 — the 12 months he took over because the beginning operating again. Tennessee rushed 3,347 instances, throughout which Henry led the NFL in carries 4 instances, dashing yards twice and dashing touchdowns twice.
Coincidentally, Henry joined the one staff with extra dashing makes an attempt and yards for the reason that Titans throughout that span: the Ravens.
This bodes properly for Henry’s 2024 marketing campaign. Regardless of his age — Henry is the second-oldest operating again within the league anticipated to start out this 12 months and the primary if Raheem Mostert doesn’t begin for the Dolphins — he’ll seemingly see the vast majority of snaps for a Baltimore staff that has been traditionally good operating the ball. The Ravens have by no means ranked decrease than seventh in dashing makes an attempt and eleventh in yards since 2017.
Todd Monken’s first 12 months as offensive coordinator bore spectacular fruit from the bottom sport as properly. The Ravens ranked first in makes an attempt and yards this previous season and fourth in dashing touchdowns. Baltimore additionally has a +5% distinction in run proportion and a +1.5% run success price distinction in comparison with Tennessee.
Oddly sufficient, although, the remainder of the Ravens’ offensive expertise may really be a detriment to Henry.
For one, Lamar Jackson’s dashing capacity might doubtlessly put Henry in worse dashing conditions due to the staff’s need to maintain a spy linebacker in case Jackson scrambles. In 2023, the Ravens confronted the fifth-most heavy bins within the NFL and their prime two operating backs — Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — ranked within the prime eighth in dangerous bins seen. Edwards ranked fourth at 61%, whereas Hill ranked seventh at 57.9% amongst operating backs with at the least 80 carries. Henry ranked twelfth at 55.7%.
A few of that may be attributed to the specter of Jackson on the bottom and the Ravens’ total proclivity for establishing a dashing sport earlier. Nevertheless, the shortage of a potent exterior pass-catcher has additionally contributed to the defenses’ continued box-stacking technique.
The Ravens cross catchers weren’t nice this previous season, as Zay Flowers was the one one with greater than 45 receptions and 550 receiving yards. Baltimore didn’t make any notable receiver additions, both, other than DeVontez Walker within the fourth spherical and Deonte Hardy in free company.
None of this could deter Henry from dominating from the bottom. He’s nonetheless in an total higher spot than he was in Tennessee and may be capable to proceed to construct on his spectacular legacy.
Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers
Jacobs is probably going in line for a similar bellcow position he had with the Raiders, however with a younger and ascending Packers staff that has an incredible coach and quarterback mixture in Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.
Jacobs joins an offense that additionally had a a lot better run success price than his earlier squad. The Packers’ 36.0% run success price is 2.4% higher than the Raiders regardless of an an identical run price total. Each Inexperienced Bay and Las Vegas ranked seventeenth with a 38.5% run proportion.
The Packers have a greater total offense as properly — which is an effective factor for any operating again as a result of it opens up pathways in the course of the protection. This previous 12 months, the Packers’ prime two rushers in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon not often ran up towards heavy bins. Jones ranked twenty seventh and Dillon ranked twentieth. Jones’ 4.6 yards per carry ranked seventeenth.
What’s odd, although, is that defenses not often stacked bins towards Jacobs and the Raiders in 2023. Jacobs noticed fewer dangerous bins (participant particular quite than the team-focused heavy field) than both Packers operating again and ranked thirty second amongst all operating backs. The Raiders as a staff ranked twenty ninth in heavy bins confronted — 3.9% lower than the Packers, who ranked 18th at 47.6%.
The Raiders had a potent exterior risk in receiver Davante Adams, which seemingly compelled defenses to shift focus to the passing sport quite than fear concerning the operating sport.
Now, Jacobs will get a greater offensive coach with a greater quarterback and offensive line in entrance of him. All of that ought to result in a greater state of affairs for Jacobs in 2024.
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
The Texans have been one of many worst dashing offenses within the NFL this previous season. Second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans hopes Mixon and a wholesome offensive line can change that.
The risk by way of the air with quarterback C.J. Stroud and the trio of extensive receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell ought to assist Mixon’s trigger in 2024. He loved his finest season in Cincinnati in 2021 when Joe Burrow threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns with two 1,000-yard receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins coupled with 800-yard receiver Tyler Boyd. Mixon tallied 1,519 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns that season.
Houston provides a little bit of a distinct id, although. The staff had a barely worse success price in 2023 than the Bengals by 2.8% and ranked twenty ninth in yards per carry regardless of dashing 6.1% extra. The Texans additionally ranked dead-center in heavy bins confronted.
With one other 12 months of Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik in addition to Tytus Howard and Kenyon Inexperienced again on the road, Mixon might be in a greater total place than he would have in any other case been in Cincinnati.
However that may depend upon how Slowik incorporates Mixon into the offense in comparison with what he did with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary a 12 months in the past.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
It’s onerous to understand how a lot worse Jones’ spot is for a number of causes. We don’t understand how Kevin O’Connell’s offense will look with out Kirk Cousins below middle, and we additionally don’t know who will exchange Cousins between Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy.
Due to this fact, it’s unclear how a lot of the dashing stats from 2023 will play into 2024. Jones is objectively higher than Alexander Mattison was and Ty Chandler is, however he’s actually not on a greater staff than the one he left in Inexperienced Bay.
On this state of affairs, although, the numbers aren’t in his favor. The Vikings had a barely worse run success price (0.4%) than the Packers and likewise ran the ball virtually 6% much less this previous season.
Whereas the Vikings encountered the second-fewest heavy bins in 2023, that was when Cousins was below middle for many of the season. O’Connell could shift extra to the run if Darnold or McCarthy begin.
Justin Jefferson is the one different dependable offensive weapon in Minnesota with T.J. Hockenson recovering from a late-season ACL tear and Jordan Addison doubtlessly coping with a suspension from a DUI. Whereas this might imply extra alternatives for Jones, it may additionally imply extra focus from the protection.
Chandler is a looming presence as properly, as his 4.52 yards per carry ranked twenty second amongst operating backs this previous season and he averaged 4.87 yards per carry within the remaining 4 video games of the 12 months with 4 mixed touchdowns.
Jones is not any stranger to backfield competitors in Inexperienced Bay with Dillon not too long ago and Jamaal Williams prior to now, however he won’t be in a a lot totally different state of affairs than the one he left — simply with a worse quarterback state of affairs.
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders
Ekeler has so much going towards him in 2024: He’s the fourth-oldest operating again within the NFL anticipated to see vital snaps, will seemingly be in a timeshare with a youthful Brian Robinson and is on a brand new staff with a brand new head coach, offensive coordinator and rookie quarterback.
There are a number of positives right here, although. The Commanders had an above-average run success price in 2023 at 37.1% (virtually 6% higher than the Chargers) and made a big improve to the offensive line with middle Tyler Biadasz, who completed with greater than double the run block wins than the Commanders’ facilities in 2023.
However all the pieces will depend upon No. 2 total choose Jayden Daniels, how new OC Kliff Kingsbury runs his offense (the 2022 Arizona Cardinals had virtually the identical run proportion because the 2023 Chargers) and what what position Ekeler performs behind Robinson — both as a third-down pass-catching operating again or a real 50-50 break up.
Ekeler’s manufacturing took a big dip in 2023, when he averaged lower than 4.0 yards per carry for the primary time in his profession. A change of surroundings might reinvigorate him or simply speed up his decline within the backfield.
Worse Spot
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Swift’s transfer can be fascinating as a result of not solely did he change groups, however he’ll play for a distinct offensive coordinator for the fifth consecutive 12 months he’s been within the NFL.
That offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, additionally deployed a operating sport that ranked twenty eighth in run proportion and thirty first in dashing makes an attempt for the Seattle Seahawks in 2023. Now, Waldron’s with the Bears.
In comparison with Swift’s 2023 staff, Philadelphia, Waldron’s offense ran the ball 5.8% much less and had a 6.8% worse success price on the bottom. It stays to be seen how a lot of that sport planning will translate to Chicago in 2024. Oddly sufficient, the Bears have been the seventh-most run-heavy squad within the NFL a 12 months in the past with Luke Getsy on the decision.
Waldron isn’t the one new addition to the Bears alongside Swift. Chicago introduced in two new receivers in Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze in addition to No. 1 total choose quarterback Caleb Williams.
All of that expertise might be good for Swift, who completed thirteenth in yards per carry a 12 months in the past, however he might additionally develop into an afterthought on an offense that may look to get its rookie passer going early and infrequently.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
A brand new shade of blue might be good for Pollard, although he gained’t inherit Henry’s workload in Tennessee. The offense can be totally different with ex-Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan on the helm and the emergence of younger operating again Tyjae Spears may stifle Pollard’s alternative share.
Comparatively, Callahan’s offense with Mixon within the backfield for the Bengals rushed 4.8% fewer instances than the Cowboys did in 2023 with Pollard. The run success price was additionally 2.1% worse in Cincinnati than in Dallas as properly.
Tennessee’s offensive line can be a piece in progress with two first-rounders in 2023 choose Peter Skoronski and 2024 choose JC Latham. It stays to be seen if Will Levis will be an efficient beginning quarterback, even with a duo of strong cross catchers in DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley at his disposal.
None of these are notably good indicators for Pollard to regain his pre-injury type when he averaged 5.3 yards per carry from 2021 to 2022.
Zach Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
The one factor higher about Moss being in Cincinnati quite than in Indianapolis is his potential position. He would have by no means been a starter with the Colts due to Jonathan Taylor. Now, Moss will get an opportunity to tackle an even bigger slice of the dashing sport with Chase Brown as the one actual risk within the backfield.
Nevertheless, Moss joins an offense that may lean on its passing assault, particularly with the promotion of quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher to offensive coordinator.
The Bengals ran the ball 7.8% lower than the Colts did in 2023 and had a 3.4% worse success price on the bottom. Zac Taylor’s operating video games have by no means ranked higher than nineteenth in carries, twenty second in yards per try or twenty third in dashing yards.
The Bengals are a pass-first staff with Burrow below middle and Higgins and Chase on the skin. That gained’t change with Moss within the backfield, and he provides even much less as a cross catcher than Mixon did.
Moss caught a career-high 27 passes on his 210 touches in 531 snaps. Mixon, who averaged 274.3 touches throughout his six seasons as a full-time starter, averaged 40.4 receptions per season. Brown, in the meantime, tallied 14 receptions on 58 touches in 93 snaps throughout his rookie 12 months.
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