Although many individuals anticipated him to be good immediately, Victor Wembanyama proved to be that and far more in Yr 1.
The generational prospect put collectively among the finest rookie seasons in current reminiscence en path to a runaway NBA Rookie of the Yr victory.
Having a burgeoning celebrity in your roster is a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it provides you an amazing constructing block to craft your staff round. However alternatively, it places strain in your group to start out successful as quickly as potential.
In spite of everything, you don’t need to waste even a single season of a participant with GOAT potential.
So, the place do the San Antonio Spurs stand heading into Wembanyama’s sophomore season? Have they got the items essential to make a play-in push? Or will they fumble away one other season of Wembymania?
Wemby’s Sophomore Leap
It goes with out saying that Wembanyama will proceed to develop his sport throughout his sophomore season. And man, is he already actually darn good.
He completed 2023-24 ranked ninth in total NBA in DRIP, which initiatives a participant’s contribution to his staff’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
He made historical past alongside the best way, turning into the one participant (not simply rookie) to common at the least 20 factors, 3.5 blocks, 1.5 3-point area targets and three.5 assists in the identical season since 1979-80.
If we take out 3s, steals and blocks to get a knowledge set that goes again all the best way to the 1950-51 season, Wemby is considered one of solely three 7-footers to common 20 factors, 3.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds and shoot 79% from the foul line (Wilt Chamberlain fell approach brief on this class).
The opposite two have received MVPs: Joel Embiid (thrice) and Nikola Jokic (5 instances).
How excessive can Wembanyama climb up the leaderboard in Yr 2? Prime seven? Prime 5? No. 1?
Even when he doesn’t get any higher than he was in his rookie 12 months, Wembanyama has already proven us what he can do when he will get the prospect to play subsequent to succesful veterans.
Adults within the Room
Anybody who was maintaining a tally of the Spurs final 12 months recollects the entire fiasco that was happening at level guard. For the primary two-plus months of the season, they began Jeremy Sochan (extra on him in a bit), a participant who usually slots in at ahead, as their nominal level guard. This led to some fascinating lineups but in addition some miserable offensive possessions.
Ultimately, the Spurs swapped Sochan out for a standard level guard in Tre Jones. And whereas nobody will mistake Jones for an All-Star, simply having a serviceable ground basic subsequent to Wembanyama turned the Spurs from a bottom-feeder (5-29 by way of Jan. 3) right into a semi-respectable NBA staff (17-32 after Jan. 3).
When Jones and Wembanyama shared the ground (1,285 minutes), the Spurs have been much more than semi-respectable. They have been legit good, posting a internet score of plus-4.3 in comparison with a minus-11.3 mark when both one or none was on the courtroom.
That’s what makes the one-year, 11-million greenback deal Chris Paul signed with the Spurs intriguing. Sure, Paul is now a 39-years-old level guard. However the elder statesman confirmed final 12 months that he can nonetheless be a constructive affect participant in a consolidated position.
In 26.4 minutes per sport, Paul averaged 9.2 factors, 6.8 assists and 1.2 steals whereas posting the very same DRIP (1.5) as Jones. He additionally confirmed that he can nonetheless run the pick-and-roll at a excessive stage (seventieth percentile pick-and-roll ball handler effectivity, per NBA.com), which is able to come in useful enjoying alongside Wembanyama.
Between Paul and Jones, the Spurs can guarantee (when they’re each wholesome) that they may have 48 minutes of sturdy level guard play each single evening.
The opposite huge veteran identify the Spurs added was Harrison Barnes as a part of a three-team sign-and-trade with the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings. At a look, Barnes might seem to be a throwaway, somebody the Kings wanted to get off of to be able to stage up their roster.
Nonetheless, I preserve that Barnes continues to be a starting-caliber participant on this league. Final season, Barnes positioned within the 72nd percentile in 3-point effectivity (38.7%) and the 61st percentile in 3-point quantity (6.1 3s per 75 possessions). He additionally confirmed proficiency as a closeout attacker, inserting within the 78th percentile in true capturing on drives.
Barnes is a superb spacer on the 4. The issue is that he doesn’t provide you with a lot protection (twentieth percentile D-DRIP) or secondary rim safety (seventh percentile block fee). When you will have a middle with vertical defensive limitations like Domantas Sabonis, these constraints received’t fly.
However when you will have an elite rim guardian like Wembanyama (99th percentile block fee), these shortcomings are simply high-quality.
The Boys May Develop Up
With Wemby, Jones, Paul and Barnes, the Spurs have 4 gamers they will positively pencil in for large minutes. But when the Spurs plan on making a play-in push, a few of their different younger gamers are going to have to be prepared for a serious position.
The most effective guess in that regard is Devin Vassell, who was second on the staff in O-DRIP behind solely Wembanyama final season.
Vassell has at all times been a tantalizing offensive participant due to his skill to attain on and off the ball – in an identical vein however not almost to the identical diploma because the likes of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade.
And final 12 months was the perfect 12 months but for the blossoming bucket-getter, as Vassell posted a career-high in rim area purpose share (68.2%), midrange share (45.2%), and general scoring effectivity (57.8% true capturing).
It wasn’t an amazing defensive season for Vassell (fortieth percentile D-DRIP). However he does have good instruments for a capturing guard (6-foot-7 with a 6-10 wingspan), and we’ve seen previously that offense-first gamers can rise to the event on protection on extra aggressive groups.
The opposite on-ball/off-ball scoring ahead in San Antonio’s ranks is Keldon Johnson. In contrast to Vassell, 2023-24 wasn’t sort to Johnson. After beginning 204 of 207 video games from 2020-23, Johnson solely began 27 of 69 video games final 12 months.
Statistically talking, Johnson is a good worse defender than Vassell (third percentile D-DRIP), and he’s didn’t rekindle his capturing stroke from 2021-22 (when he shot 39.8% from 3). Nonetheless, Johnson is a wrecking ball in terms of attending to the rim (seventy fifth percentile rim frequency) and the charity stripe (seventy fifth percentile free throw frequency).
Gamers like Johnson, who can get to the paint at will, are supremely worthwhile. If he can simply get his 3-point groove again and provides larger buy-in on protection, Johnson may simply fill that fifth beginning spot subsequent to Paul, Vassell, Barnes and Wembanyama.
(Sidebar: I’m a lot greater on Vassell than I’m on Johnson at this level.)
I discussed the entire Sochan debacle earlier, and whereas Sochan at level guard was an utter failure, it additionally took away from what was an in any other case stable sophomore marketing campaign.
After the Spurs’ Jan. 2 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, Sochan was moved again to his pure place at ahead. Earlier than that change, the Spurs had a internet score of -13.9 throughout Sochan’s minutes. However after the change, their internet score went all the best way as much as a -2.3 in these spurts.
As I outlined in his rookie breakdown in 2023, Sochan has a ability set that’s similar to Corridor of Famer Dennis Rodman. He’s a defense-first ahead (72nd percentile D-DRIP), who loves crashing the offensive glass (72nd percentile offensive rebounding fee), and affords some underrated passing chops.
If Sochan doesn’t find yourself being the fifth starter, he may function in the identical capability that Rodman did throughout his early days with the Detroit Pistons – as a supercharged Energizer Bunny off the bench.
The final participant I may see falling into that fifth starter position is 2024 NBA Draft fourth-overall choose Stephon Fort. For many who aren’t acquainted with the nationwide champion’s sport, Fort capabilities very equally to Anthony Black and Dyson Daniels – a defense-first guard/wing who’s adept at reducing and connective-tissue passing (however lacks a dependable exterior jumper).
The Spurs may select to start out Fort over Johnson or Sochan to make sure that they’ve a powerful point-of-attack defender of their beginning lineup.
Outdoors of these 4, the three different predominant younger guys value speaking about (Harrison Ingram is on a two-way, so we’ll depart him out of this for now) are Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie and Blake Wesley.
The previous has demonstrated some good offensive flashes, whereas the latter two have completed the identical with protection, however none of them have proven sufficient for me to consider they are often constant position gamers subsequent season.
The Backside Line
On paper, the Spurs have some good issues going for them. They’ve a participant who probably will land on an All-NBA staff subsequent 12 months, a few dependable veterans, and younger gamers who may expertise leaps that permit them to tackle an even bigger position throughout the staff.
However in addition they have some main obstacles to beat in the event that they plan on making a play-in push. First, the Western Convention is as much as its common customary, with all however two groups (the Utah Jazz and Portland Path Blazers) coming into the season with expectations of creating the playoffs.
Second, the Spurs are counting on numerous younger gamers, and if issues don’t break their approach, they could possibly be working very shallow by way of playoff-caliber gamers.
I belief Vassell to step up alongside Jones, Paul, Barnes and Wembanyama. However exterior of him, the staff will want three of Johnson, Sochan, Fort, Branham, Champagnie and Wesley (I wasn’t proud of what I noticed from Zach Collins final 12 months) to play like rotation-level gamers in the event that they need to area at the least eight high quality gamers of their night-to-night rotation.
Lastly, regardless of how issues go together with their younger gamers, this Spurs staff shall be sorely missing in spacing. Jones, Paul, Wembanyama, Sochan, Fort, Champagnie and Wesley are all below-average spacers. That’s over half of their projected 10/11-man rotation. As a basic rule, it’s actually exhausting to win on this league when you find yourself trotting out multiple or two below-average shooters without delay.
Total, I feel the Spurs shall be similar to final 12 months’s Houston Rockets. The strikes they made so as to add expertise to their ranks will deliver them nearer to the play-in. However in the end, their reliance on unproven youth, lack of spacing, and presence on the harder facet of the bracket will hold them simply in need of the event.
Make sure to try all our MLB, NBA, school soccer and NFL protection. And comply with us on X and Instagram for extra!
