Newcastle are reportedly set to splash out on England defender Marc Guéhi, whose inventory is excessive after a formidable displaying at Euro 2024. However is he actually price a lot?
As switch deadline day attracts nearer, folks begin to get determined.
Gamers who want a transfer will contemplate golf equipment they may not have earlier than; groups who want to dump gamers will probably be open to decrease provides; and anybody in want of a sure sort of participant will probably be keen to pay greater than they might have a number of weeks in the past.
For Newcastle, Friday’s approaching deadline means time is working out for them to herald a centre-back, the place they badly want reinforcement.
Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish is aware of as a lot.
Newcastle have reportedly been fascinated by Palace and England defender Marc Guéhi all summer season, and Parish is aware of there is no such thing as a purpose to even contemplate letting him go on a budget.
“We want to preserve maintain of him, [but] there’s a value and a state of affairs the place we’d contemplate it,” Parish instructed BBC Sport earlier this month. “Someone [in another interview] mentioned he’s a celebrity, so any individual has bought to pay celebrity cash.
“Realistically, he’s homegrown, 24 years previous and a sensational expertise – so any individual has to make it tough for us. In the meanwhile, it isn’t.”
Whether or not Guéhi actually is a “celebrity” is up for debate, however coming into the season off the again of a really profitable summer season at Euro 2024, the place he was one in every of England’s greatest gamers, his inventory has by no means been greater. The discuss is that Newcastle have tried and failed with multiple bid of over £60 million, however are actually extra prone to strike a deal having agreed to pay nearer to £70m.
Guéhi being English and doing so effectively at Euro 2024 will each have pushed his value up, however simply as large an element – and one that offers Palace and Parish much more bargaining energy – is the actual fact the 24-year-old is comfy enjoying on the left facet of central defence.
The steadiness {that a} good left-sided centre-back brings to a workforce can’t be understated. Arguably greater than some other place on the pitch, the ‘left-sidedness’ of a participant is most essential within the present sport on the coronary heart of defence, and actually good ones are scarce, too. That every one means there’s a premium on high-quality left-sided centre-backs for the time being.
Which all begs the query: is Guéhi actually price a club-record price to Newcastle?
If you take a look at how transformative some centre-back signings have been in recent times, there may be in fact potential for Guéhi to be price each penny.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that signing Virgil van Dijk from Southampton for £75m in 2018 has altered the course of Liverpool’s historical past. They’ve gained nearly all the things there may be to win since he joined, and the price they paid for him has been utterly forgotten. Had they paid double the quantity, he would nonetheless be thought of a large success at Anfield.
Rúben Dias (Manchester Metropolis), William Saliba (Arsenal), Micky van de Ven (Tottenham) and Pau Torres (Aston Villa) are 4 extra examples of top-end Premier League centre-backs who’ve made their transfers look low cost after big-money strikes as a result of they’ve improved their workforce a lot.
However there are additionally loads of centre-backs who haven’t slot in fairly so effectively, and haven’t paid again their switch charges. On the value reported, Guéhi would in fact include a major threat to Newcastle, who’ve apparently needed to tread the monetary line fairly fastidiously this summer season.
Harry Maguire, the most costly defender of all time, stands out as an apparent instance of a centre-back who has been slightly much less profitable than these talked about above, and discuss of his time at Outdated Trafford is sort of at all times accompanied by a point out of the £80m he price again in 2019.
Nonetheless, Maguire was arguably by no means going to have the ability to remodel Manchester United’s fortunes in such a turbulent time for the membership, and 5 years of respectable service actually doesn’t make him a whole failure.
On the identical time, Guéhi might want to markedly enhance Newcastle’s defence – greater than Maguire did United’s – to be deemed successful. So, how precisely will he be of use?
The issue with utilizing occasion information to analyse defenders is that a number of actions and excessive numbers don’t essentially imply they’re doing a very good job. A centre-back who makes a number of tackles may be diving in an excessive amount of, and one other who doesn’t make any in any respect may simply play for a workforce whose centre-backs aren’t uncovered to conditions when tackles are wanted. There’s at all times a restrict to how a lot might be gleaned from a defender’s metrics because of this.
What we will say about Guéhi, nevertheless, is that he’s a really succesful participant in the case of defensive actions. He passes the attention check on that entrance, clearly possessing a very good studying of the sport whereas additionally being bodily dominant in the case of particular person battles.
His duel success price of 61.8% in Premier League video games because the begin of final season is the second-best amongst gamers with at the very least 2,000 minutes performed for Palace, solely marginally behind Joachim Andersen (62.5%). Among the many 240 gamers throughout the complete Premier League to compete in 150+ duels in that point, in the meantime, Guéhi ranks twentieth for duel success.
He isn’t significantly identified for his aerial capacity, however at Euro 2024, he gained extra aerial duels than some other England participant (13 – ninth total), whereas he additionally blocked probably the most photographs, too (six).
He can try this facet of the sport effectively, however what he does on the ball goes to be simply as essential at Newcastle.
Having come via the ranks at Chelsea, Guéhi can have realized his sport with the ball on the ground, and that exhibits in his soccer lately. He’s very comfy in possession, and very happy to step out of defence and progress play both with a go or by carrying play into midfield. Crucially, he can use both foot and, regardless of – like Van Dijk – being predominantly right-footed, is at his greatest enjoying on the left facet of defence.
His passing accuracy in Premier League video games in 2023-24 (87.1%) was the sixth-highest amongst all gamers (min. 2,000 minutes performed) at golf equipment that completed exterior the highest 9, behind 4 Brighton gamers and Burnley’s Sander Berge.
He’s formidable together with his passing, too, with 13.5% of his passes despatched lengthy, and 48.0% of these lengthy passes discovering their goal. Of gamers to try at the very least 150 lengthy balls, solely 4 had a greater success price than Guéhi. He additionally efficiently accomplished 15 of his 18 tried switches of play.
He’s clearly an excellent footballer in addition to an adept defender, so the large query for Newcastle is how a lot he can enhance the workforce.
There’s little question that Newcastle may do with extra gamers in that a part of the pitch. With Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles each out long-term and Fabian Schär suspended on the weekend, Dan Burn and Emil Krafth began at centre-back in this weekend’s draw at Bournemouth.
Each have performed most of their soccer for Newcastle at full-back (Krafth is a right-back whereas Burn has been transformed right into a left-back at Newcastle), and so it spoke volumes about supervisor Eddie Howe’s ideas on Lloyd Kelly – a left-sided centre-back who signed on a free this summer season – that he performed him at full-back regardless of so many issues within the centre of defence.
A part of what makes a central defender successful – at the very least when it comes to how they’re seen by followers – is what number of errors they make. Actually, that has been a dominant function of Maguire’s error-strewn United profession.
Guéhi, although, is slightly extra dependable. In Premier League video games final season, he made just one error resulting in an opposition shot, a slip at St. James’ Park that Sean Longstaff pounced on to attain in Newcastle’s 4-0 win over Palace final October. It isn’t too beneficiant to counsel that was an uncharacteristic and unlucky second in Guéhi’s Premier League profession.
He hasn’t but performed persistently for a possession-dominant workforce at membership stage, and there could also be extra alternatives to make errors when enjoying out from the again ought to he transfer to Newcastle – as Maguire discovered to be the case at United.
For that purpose it might be an enormous step up if he have been to swap Selhurst Park for St. James’, however Guéhi confirmed with a string of sturdy and warranted performances for England this summer season that he’s at house enjoying in a facet that controls video games, too.
There could be loads of kilos to repay ought to he make the transfer to Newcastle, however there’s additionally an enormous hole that wants filling, and it’s an excellent alternative for Guéhi to make that leap. He most likely gained’t find yourself being Newcstle’s reply to Van Dijk, however he must be nearer to that than Maguire at United.
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