Who will win the Ligue 1 title in 2024-25? Which golf equipment will qualify for the Champions League and who shall be scrapping for survival? We have a look at all the important thing questions with French Ligue 1
predictions for the upcoming season by way of our trusty Opta supercomputer.
Ligue 1 Season Predictions: The Fast Hits
Favourites for the Title: Paris Saint-Germain tipped for a fourth consecutive Ligue 1 title.
Title Darkish Horse: Monaco are PSG’s greatest challengers.
Prime 4 Favourites: PSG, Monaco, Lille, with Lens and Marseille battling it out for the ultimate spot.
Relegation Favourites: Angers the favourites, with Le Havre, Saint-Étienne and Nantes additionally tipped to battle.
After internet hosting an impressive Olympic Video games, membership soccer is again in France.
Having gained the title every of the final three seasons, Paris Saint-Germain open the 2024-25 marketing campaign with a visit to Le Havre on Friday night. The Opta supercomputer expects PSG to dominate each in that recreation, and general, this season in Ligue 1.
Because it does yearly, we requested it to simulate the 2024-25 season 10,000 occasions and produce a mean rating based mostly on the outcomes. Unsurprisingly, the reigning champions are the overwhelming favourites to succeed once more, however the predictions anticipate a really tight top-flight with plenty of contenders for each Champions League qualification and relegation.
A necessary factor to know is that these projections are based mostly on what the Opta supercomputer is aware of at this time. So if all Ligue 1 video games have been to be performed now, that is how the mannequin sees the league ending. In fact, these projections will change all through the season, hundreds of occasions, based mostly on real-life knowledge powering the seasonal simulations. It doesn’t consider potential factors deductions, a long-term harm to a star striker and it definitely doesn’t have a crystal ball to foretell managerial modifications.
Nonetheless, these pre-season projections present an early have a look at what sure groups is perhaps realistically aiming to attain in 2024-25. You’ll have seen numerous 1-18 predictions by publications this summer time and also you’ve in all probability made your personal, too; see this as a extra distinctive projection with out opinion and as a substitute powered by knowledge.
So, with out additional ado, we run you thru the important thing outcomes of the present Opta supercomputer Ligue 1 2024-25 simulations.
Who Will Win Ligue 1 in 2024-25?
Except you’ve been dwelling below a rock for the final decade, you gained’t have landed on this web page anticipating something aside from a prediction that sees Paris Saint-Germain as overwhelming favourites for the Ligue 1 title. In 2023-24, the Opta supercomputer projected PSG’s title hopes at 55.5% in pre-season. They ended up successful the league by 9 factors. Now, a yr on, the supercomputer is much more bullish on PSG’s probabilities, with a projected title chance of 79.0%.
In fact, they’ll have to do that with out Kylian Mbappé, who has left Paris for Actual Madrid this summer time, however they’re nonetheless overwhelming favourites to safe a fourth successive Ligue 1 title – solely Lyon (7 between 2002 and 2008) have gained extra consecutively in France.
The most certainly problem to PSG’s dominance comes from Monaco, who completed in second place final season and gained the title in 2024-25 throughout 8.1% of the supercomputer’s pre-season projections. They final gained the league in 2016-17 – with a sure Mbappé of their ranks – however should make do with out striker Wissam Ben Yedder this season following his departure in the summertime. Regardless of this, they appear properly outfitted to be PSG’s closest challengers as soon as once more this season.
Behind final season’s prime two sides, Lille gained the Ligue 1 title in 5.5% of pre-season projections after a fourth-place end in 2023-24, whereas they have been the final facet to take the league away from the Parisians in 2020-21.
Outdoors these three, Lens (1.7%), Marseille (1.4%), Good (1.3%), and Lyon (1.1%) gained the title a collective 551 occasions within the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations. Of these sides, Marseille have been probably the most lively within the switch market this summer time and can hope the arrival of Roberto Di Zerbi from Brighton & Hove Albion would possibly give them some stability that they have been missing final season.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
The highest three golf equipment in Ligue 1 subsequent season will mechanically qualify for the UEFA Champions League, and final season there was a shock podium finisher in Brest. Earlier than a ball was kicked in 2023-24, the Opta supercomputer gave them only a 0.2% likelihood of doing that, however now their likelihood of one other top-three end is at 14.8%.
May lightning strike twice? Nicely, not based on this season’s projections, with seven different golf equipment extra more likely to safe a spot within the prime three on the finish of 2024-25.
In fact, PSG are the most certainly crew to complete within the prime three (97.0%) this season, however the battle to fill second and third place seems to be like being one to regulate all through the marketing campaign. Monaco (54.3%) are in with a shout of UCL qualifying for a fourth successive season whereas, regardless of ending fourth in 2023-24, Lille have the subsequent greatest projected likelihood of ending within the prime three (42.5%).
Led by new tasks and the arrival of two revered coaches, Will Nonetheless and De Zerbi, the revitalised Lens (21.6%) and Marseille (18.6%) are additionally properly positioned to complete inside the highest three, whereas Good (17.2%) are simply above Lyon (15.1%) within the projections. Lyon seemed in large bother in early December final season, sitting backside of the league after 14 video games and 5 factors adrift of sixteenth place Lorient. Nevertheless, of their remaining 20 video games of the 2023-24 marketing campaign, they gained extra factors than another facet in Ligue 1 (46), three greater than title-winning PSG (43) and 6 greater than Monaco (40).
Rennes (12.9%) are the one different crew with a larger than 3% likelihood of a prime three end in 2024-25, this after their worst league end for 5 years final season (tenth).
Who Shall be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2024-25?
There are two computerized relegation spots in Ligue 1 this season, with an extra third potential by way of a relegation play-off. Final season noticed Metz lose that play-off to Saint-Étienne and relegated alongside Clermont and Lorient.
This season, there are 5 golf equipment who stand out as relegation potentials within the pre-season Opta supercomputer projections, with every having not less than a 30% likelihood of ending inside the underside two and falling into Ligue 2.
Unsurprisingly, there are two promoted groups amongst this group: Angers (44.2%), who solely spent one season in Ligue 2 earlier than returning to the primary division, and Saint-Étienne (37.4%), a historic membership again within the top-flight for 2024-25. Between these two is Le Havre (38.8%) who survived final season regardless of being the overwhelming favourites for the drop within the pre-season projections final season (73.1%).
Auxerre additionally gained promotion as champions from Ligue 2 final season, however they discover themselves because the fifth-likeliest crew to be relegated within the Opta supercomputer projections (30.6%), behind Nantes (35.0%), who’ve completed within the backside half of the desk in 5 of their final six Ligue 1 seasons.
You’d suppose that Strasbourg is perhaps protected from the drop, with the Opta supercomputer projecting a 6.1% likelihood of a backside two end this season, however Clermont have been relegated final season regardless of a pre-season projected likelihood of simply 5.3% by the supercomputer final season.
Opta-Simulated Ligue 1 2024-25 Desk
After simulating the 2024-25 season 10,000 occasions, we’re in a position to common the factors whole of each membership throughout these simulations and due to this fact rank groups positionally. Listed here are the Opta supercomputer outcomes from these simulations:
1st: Paris Saint-Germain – 73.3 common factors
2nd: Monaco – 60.8
third: Lille – 58.8
4th: Lens – 54.6
fifth: Marseille – 54.0
sixth: Good – 53.5
seventh: Lyon – 52.9
eighth: Brest – 52.7
ninth: Rennes – 52.2
tenth: Toulouse – 45.5
eleventh: Montpellier – 44.5
twelfth: Reims – 43.2
thirteenth: Strasbourg – 41.1
14th: Auxerre – 33.4
fifteenth: Nantes – 32.6
sixteenth: Saint-Étienne – 32.2
seventeenth: Le Havre – 31.9
18th: Angers SCO – 31.0
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Mannequin Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction mannequin estimates the probability of groups ending in every place within the competitors. We will due to this fact see how profitable a crew’s season is more likely to be, whether or not it’s their relegation or title probabilities.
• The mannequin estimates the chance of every match final result (win, draw or loss) by utilizing betting market odds and Opta Energy Rankings. The percentages and rankings are based mostly on historic and up to date crew performances.
• The mannequin considers the power of opponents by utilizing these match final result possibilities and simulates the remaining fixtures within the competitors hundreds of occasions. By analysing the result of every of those simulations, the mannequin can see how typically groups completed in every league place to create our remaining predictions.
Take pleasure in this? Subscribe to our soccer e-newsletter to obtain unique weekly content material. You also needs to comply with our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Fb.
