Welcome to The Athletic’s NBA Reliability Tiers, by which we measure the All-NBA standing of the 49 All-Stars over the past three seasons and weigh how a lot these stars play within the common season. Every day we’ve got a brand new tier. We launched the methodology with Tier 5. We continued with Tier 4. That is Tier 3.
Welcome to the center of the pack. All of those gamers in Tier 3 have been undisputed prime choices for his or her groups. A few of them are nonetheless exploring that house and could possibly be All-NBA gamers at some stage in their burgeoning careers.
However, lots of the gamers on this group have proven what it takes to be an All-NBA performer sooner or later lately of their careers and might be harmful. However their potential to remain on the ground has been a extreme problem as of late. Perhaps you possibly can depend on these gamers to take over persistently, however this group options among the most injury-prone stars within the league.
The Reliability Tiers prioritize the newest All-Star and All-NBA picks, with a better rank given to the gamers who usually tend to be on the ground. This isn’t a rating of who is healthier when it comes to pure potential. There are gamers on this tier that if we have been doing an influence rating of gamers in a vacuum, the younger guys like Paolo Banchero or Scottie Barnes would possible be down the record, whereas gamers equivalent to Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis can be valued as top-20 gamers.
Tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers will open up in opposition to each other on nationwide tv, adopted by the LA Clippers internet hosting the Phoenix Suns on the new Intuit Dome, a rematch of the 2021 Western Convention finals. Paul George is on the centerpiece of each video games, regardless that he received’t be taking part in in both.
This received’t be a rehashing of Damian Lillard’s retort to George that the latter “hold switching groups… working from the grind.” Nonetheless, Bucks-76ers would have been an attention-grabbing spot to see how George and Lillard would have battled, particularly with Lillard attempting to re-establish All-NBA standing with former 76ers and Clippers head coach Doc Rivers. Lillard’s struggles staying wholesome, particularly for a declining Portland crew, performed a job in him altering groups.
However George received’t be out there for a season opener for the primary time since 2019, when he was recovering from offseason shoulder surgical procedures. George lately suffered a non-contact knee damage within the preseason, and whereas it’s only a bone bruise, it’s going to price him the primary week of the season together with his new crew. Whereas George bounced again to All-NBA standing after Rivers was fired, in a season that ended with the one Clippers look in a convention finals, he has struggled with availability ever since.
A typical narrative for NBA observers within the wake of George leaving the Clippers for Philadelphia is that the Clippers ought to have stored George over Kawhi Leonard due to George being extra more likely to be out there. It’s true that George has been extra out there than Leonard during the last three seasons and has been in a position to contribute extra typically consequently. George was the All-Star choice representing the Clippers in 2023, whereas Leonard acquired off to a gradual and largely absent begin as a consequence of his challenges getting back from a torn ACL suffered in 2021.
Sadly for George and the Clippers, George’s elevated availability in comparison with Leonard is barely a relative one. George solely averaged 13.7 extra video games performed per season than Leonard during the last three seasons, and that was and not using a main surgical procedure sidelining George for a complete marketing campaign like Leonard. George was wanted probably the most through the 2021-22 season when Leonard was recovering, however when Jusuf Nurkić fell on George’s arm in an early December sport, it left the Clippers with out both of their stars for greater than half of the 12 months.
The next season, George performed greater than Leonard and earned an All-Star choice, however George’s misfortune continued when Luguentz Dort crashed into George’s knee a number of weeks earlier than the playoffs. The ensuing damage was a extreme sprain, one which didn’t require surgical procedure, however left George unable to take part within the postseason for the second 12 months in a row.
Final season was the largest paradox of balancing George’s potential together with his availability. On one hand, George didn’t miss a single sport till Dec. 14, his longest stretch of video games to begin a season since becoming a member of the Clippers. George by no means missed greater than two video games in a row, and he performed in 74 video games, his most in 5 years.
However the Clippers believed that taking the ball out of George’s arms on one finish of the ground and never having him be a major point-of-attack defender on the opposite finish was key to maintaining George wholesome. George’s touches decreased sharply, going from 68.8 per sport in 2021 when Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue basically made George the first playmaker, to 75.4 touches per sport within the 2021-22 season with out Leonard, to 56.8 per sport final season with the Clippers having future Corridor of Famers James Harden and Russell Westbrook as level guards.
“We had a method in place that, , we didn’t need to get him worn down all through the course of the season,” Lue mentioned in March about limiting George’s on-ball function. “Him having to make each play within the pick-and-roll and hitting the bottom and attending to the free-throw line. We needed James to have that accountability, as a result of James was nice in it. And we talked in regards to the final 20 video games, placing the ball again in PG’s arms so he can get used to it. So after we get to the playoffs, we all know precisely what we need to do.”
The excellent news is that George performed in his first postseason in three years this previous spring. Leonard was not at full power for the 2 video games he was in a position to play, whereas George was wholesome for all six of the Clippers’ Western Convention quarterfinals sequence loss to the eventual NBA finalist Dallas Mavericks. However George was not in a position to be the identical participant he was within the 2021 postseason with out Leonard.
That’s what is going through lots of the gamers on this tier. First, can they be out there sufficient, particularly in consecutive years? And second, are they able to an All-NBA look in 2025? Can they be that man persistently? Some gamers are off to extra convincing begins than others.
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Tier 3
Common video games performed final three seasons: 53.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Workforce, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star
Lillard is likely one of the most ball-dominant stars within the league, and he confirmed that he can nonetheless produce at a excessive stage even subsequent to an All-NBA expertise. Sadly, Lillard missed two video games within the playoffs due to a proper Achilles tendon pressure. Lillard has had points together with his proper calf going again to the 2022-23 season, when he missed 24 video games. Lillard additionally had season-ending belly surgical procedure in January 2022. It’s good that Lillard acquired by way of final season wholesome, however his availability is a priority as he enters his age-34 season.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 60.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Second Workforce
Butler’s regular-season availability has been a priority yearly that Butler has been in Miami, as he has missed no less than 15 video games every of the final 5 seasons. When the playoffs come round, Butler turns into extra harmful. However he has additionally missed a playoff sport due to damage every of the final three years, and he missed your complete 2024 postseason due to a proper MCL sprain. Butler made extra 3s than he ever did with the Warmth final season and he’s nonetheless extremely efficient on each ends of the ground. Miami has been squarely in the course of the Japanese Convention the final two seasons, and it stays to be seen if Butler can enhance his participation whereas heading into his age-35 marketing campaign.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 73.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-NBA ThirdTeam, 2023 All-Star
Siakam has trended down when it comes to particular person accomplishments the final couple of seasons, as he was neither an All-Star nor All-NBA choice for the primary time in three years after getting traded from Toronto in January. However Siakam has solely missed 28 video games prior to now three seasons, performed 80 video games final season, and he was superb within the playoffs for a Pacers crew that made it to the Japanese Convention finals. If Siakam can carry that manufacturing over into the beginning of this season, then Siakam may have an excellent shot at regaining All-Star standing, particularly as Indiana’s prime scoring menace.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 57.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2024 All-NBA Second Workforce, 2024 All-Star
Final season was an important 12 months for Davis when it comes to staying on the ground, as he missed solely six video games and returned to All-NBA standing for the primary time in 4 years. Davis’ expertise and manufacturing is just not why he missed being an All-NBA choice three years in a row. It’s about Davis’ sturdiness and the truth that the Lakers have spent many of the final 4 seasons squarely within the Play-In image or worse. Knee and foot accidents price Davis greater than half the 2021-22 season, whereas one other foot damage was a consider Davis lacking 26 video games in 2022-23. Davis is likely one of the greatest defenders within the league and does all the things offensively effectively besides shoot 3s. He turns 32 in March, making him one of many older beginning facilities within the league, however he’ll try and play in 70 video games in back-to-back seasons for the primary time since 2018.
Los Angeles Lakers
C
Tier 3
Common video games performed final three seasons: 55.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Workforce, 2022 All-Star, 2024 All-Star
Cities needs to be at middle extra typically in New York after he shared the ground with Rudy Gobert in his final two seasons with the Timberwolves. The final time Cities began the vast majority of his video games at middle, he was an All-NBA choice. However that was additionally the one time within the final 5 seasons that Cities missed fewer than 20 video games. Final season, Cities missed greater than a month after present process knee surgical procedure. The 12 months earlier than, Cities missed many of the season as a consequence of a Grade 3 calf pressure. If Cities can keep on the ground, he might see a rise in his numbers throughout the board.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 53.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star
Some have instructed that the Clippers ought to have prioritized maintaining George over Kawhi Leonard with each having the choice to say no the ultimate years of their contracts in 2024. George did play in additional video games than Leonard and represented the Clippers as an All-Star in back-to-back seasons. However George hasn’t been an All-NBA choice since 2021. And whereas he made it by way of final season and not using a main absence, George missed many of the 2021-22 season due to a torn ligament in his elbow and 26 video games within the 2022-23 season. George missed the 2023 postseason due to a sprained knee as effectively. The 76ers are already experiencing what a George damage scare is like, as he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee over the past week of the preseason. Protecting George within the lineup at this stage of his profession requires a crew to have a number of star gamers who can cut back George’s workload on each side of the ground.
Philadelphia 76ers
SF
Tier 3
Common video games performed final three seasons: 76.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2024 All-Star
Banchero went from being the highest choose of the 2022 draft to Rookie of the Yr to an All-Star for a playoff crew in two years. He was additionally the one All-Star choice to play in 80 video games final season. It’s uncommon a giant has a lot of a crew’s offense run by way of him, however that’s the case for Banchero in Orlando; he’s basically the crew’s major playmaker. Now, the Magic’s offense is just not good, and Banchero has a methods to go when it comes to being environment friendly and simpler with the ball in his arms, however Banchero received’t be 22 years previous till November, and his mixture of measurement and talent is intriguing given what he’s already achieved.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 42.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Workforce, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-Star
Each participant up to now has been chosen for one of many earlier three All-Star video games. Morant stops that pattern. His expertise is apparent as a heavy on-ball presence who lives within the paint and the free-throw line regardless of his lithe body. Morant has missed 34 video games as a consequence of off-court incidents, however the extra urgent problem for him going ahead is his lack of sturdiness. Shoulder surgical procedure ended Morant’s season after solely 9 video games final season. Morant missed a playoff sport in 2023 due to a right-hand damage. Even in his 2022 marketing campaign that ended with a Most Improved Participant award and a spot on the All-NBA Second Workforce, Morant missed 25 video games within the common season and was unable to complete the 2022 West semifinals in opposition to the Warriors due to a proper knee bone bruise. Morant’s measurement, model of play, damage historical past, and workload make him one of many larger availability considerations within the league.
Memphis Grizzlies
PG
Tier 3
Common video games performed final three seasons: 70.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2024 All-Star
Barnes turned an All-Star final 12 months on the power of his potential to stuff the stat sheet past scoring. He averaged 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks. The one different gamers to common these verified numbers in a season have been Draymond Inexperienced in 2016, Kevin Garnett in 2003 and Larry Hen in 1985. Barnes had missed solely 13 video games in his profession till he broke his hand in March and missed the ultimate 22 video games of final season. The Raptors don’t have practically as a lot expertise now as they did a 12 months in the past, which supplies Barnes an opportunity to probably break 20 factors per sport for the primary time in his brief profession.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 68.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Workforce, 2023 All-Star
Fox turned a first-time All-Star and All-NBA performer in 2023 as soon as he lastly mixed effectivity, quantity and well being on a successful crew. The Kings weren’t practically as deadly offensively final season, however Fox was in a position to present that he might keep on the ground in back-to-back seasons for the primary time since his first two seasons. Fox’s quantity will possible take successful with DeMar DeRozan becoming a member of the crew, however that would additionally enable Fox’s effectivity to bounce again.
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 68.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2024 All-Star
Maxey totally emerged as a star final season, taking part in his most video games with out Ben Simmons, James Harden or Joel Embiid on the lively roster and exhibiting that he might rating at a excessive stage. Apart from a fracture in his left foot in November 2022, Maxey has been sturdy during the last three seasons, and he turned the league’s Most Improved Participant and a first-time All-Star in 2024. Maxey additionally averaged practically 30 factors per sport within the Japanese quarterfinals. His quantity will possible lower with Embiid returning and Paul George becoming a member of the 76ers, however Maxey has already proven that he might be environment friendly with out stars; he needs to be one of many increased ground stars within the league.
Philadelphia 76ers
PG
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 40.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
No All-NBA performer during the last three seasons has been dealt a harder hand than Leonard, who suffered a torn ACL within the second spherical of the 2021 playoffs and didn’t see the ground your complete subsequent season. On one hand, Leonard returned to the NBA in 2022, did enhance to 52 video games that season in 2022-23 and 68 video games in 2023-24. Leonard re-established his star standing final season, changing into the one participant within the league to attain 1,500 factors, make no less than 50 p.c from the sphere, and add 100 steals and 100 3s. However alternatively, Leonard has did not make it by way of any postseason wholesome since 2020 due to these proper knee woes. Irritation in Leonard’s proper knee was the issue final spring, and the Clippers are having Leonard give attention to strengthening his knee earlier than he takes the ground for the upcoming season. It highlights the lengths the Clippers must go to to not solely get Leonard on the ground, but in addition to maintain him on the ground as effectively.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 69.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Jackson Jr. performed 500 extra minutes than some other Grizzlies participant final season, and his potential to remain on the ground has improved considerably over the previous three seasons. Whereas he reached career-highs in offensive quantity, Jackson’s effectivity suffered whereas attempting to prop up the league’s worst offense. Jackson was the 2023 Defensive Participant of the Yr, however his effectiveness dropped off and not using a bodyguard-type middle persistently within the lineup. Getting Jackson again to All-Star stage and All-Protection type could possibly be so simple as taking part in with Ja Morant and lottery choose Zach Edey. However Jackson Jr. is already coping with a nasty hamstring this month as effectively.
Memphis Grizzlies
PF
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 67.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Vacation becoming a member of the Celtics resulted in a drop from his All-Star quantity in Milwaukee, however he additionally received his second NBA championship, was an All-Defensive crew choice and took house an Olympic gold medal within the Paris 2024 Olympics.s as effectively, whereas making one more All-Defensive crew. Most significantly, aside from a shoulder damage in March, Vacation was largely wholesome final season. He’s 34, however Vacation has one of many lightest workloads of a star level guard. It’s how he went from taking pictures 39.6 p.c from the sphere in three postseasons with the Bucks to 50.3 p.c with the Celtics final spring.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 60.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Markkanen broke out as an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Participant in 2023, however final season highlighted the stat that Markkanen has missed no less than 14 video games in each season of his profession. Hamstring, quad, and shoulder accidents held Markkanen to solely 55 video games final season, and he’s nonetheless on the lookout for his first profession postseason as effectively. After signing a brand new contract extension in August to remain in Utah, it will be a shock if Markkanen and the Jazz play within the postseason in 2025.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 60.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Workforce, 2022 All-Star
Paul is the lowest-ranked participant who has appeared on an All-NBA crew simply one of many final three years. Final season in Golden State was the primary time that Paul got here off the bench in 19 NBA seasons and the primary time he missed the playoffs in 14 years. In 2023, Paul missed the ultimate 4 postseason video games in Phoenix in 2023 due to a groin damage, and his remaining All-Star season was interrupted by a fractured thumb. The longer term Corridor of Famer is 39 years previous and now on his seventh NBA crew, however he’ll get to begin once more in San Antonio after averaging fewer than 13 factors and 31 minutes for the primary time in his profession final season.
San Antonio Spurs
PG
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 49.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Irving simply got here off a postseason the place he performed a career-high 879 minutes. That’s 54 extra minutes than Irving’s different seasons since he left Cleveland in 2017 mixed. Expertise and on-court match are hardly ever the priority for Irving, a participant equally harmful on the ball or off the ball taking part in subsequent to a fulcrum of offense. Irving has missed no less than 15 video games every of the final seven seasons, and whereas final 12 months was by far his quietest when it comes to non-injury incidents in a number of seasons, Irving nonetheless missed 24 video games largely to heel and thumb accidents. Irving might be 33 years previous in March, and sturdiness has by no means been a robust go well with of his.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 73.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
In two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray missed a complete of 12 video games. That doesn’t embrace a postseason suspension in 2023 for making inappropriate contact with and verbally abusing a sport official. Murray was unable to type a working partnership with Trae Younger, and. consequently, Murray’s lone profession All-Star choice remains to be from his final season with the San Antonio Spurs. Now, Murray will attempt to discover his match and match higher with the opposite on-ball choices in New Orleans, although it helps that he was dropped at the Pelicans particularly to assist tackle the crew’s woeful clutch-time offense.
New Orleans Pelicans
SG
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 70.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Gobert’s defensive accolades converse for themselves, for probably the most half; there are all the time some bad-faith arguments in terms of Gobert’s accomplishments. When Gobert missed a Timberwolves playoff win in Denver due to the delivery of his youngster, some participant analysts tried to make use of that as a degree in opposition to Gobert’s impression. Whereas Gobert has been a prime defender in Minnesota, he has not made an All-Star Sport since he was traded from Utah. Given his limitations offensively as a passer and shooter, there’s an opportunity that Gobert’s awards are restricted to All-Protection groups.
Minnesota Timberwolves
C
Tier 4
Common video games performed final three seasons: 69.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
With regards to small guards, VanVleet is likely one of the most out there gamers within the league. Over the previous three seasons, solely 9 gamers have performed extra minutes, solely eight gamers have made extra 3s, solely six gamers have extra assists, and solely three gamers have extra steals. On the flip aspect, VanVleet might be 31 years previous in February, is 6 ft tall, has by no means shot 43 p.c or higher from the sphere, and his scoring has dropped from his All-Star career-high of 20.3 factors every of the final two seasons. Will probably be a shock if VanVleet will get again to an All-Star Sport, however his consistency needs to be applauded.
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 67.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Like Garland, his Cavs teammate, Allen made his lone All-Star look in 2022 and has been working alongside the same participant for a number of seasons. In Allen’s case, he has been within the lineup with Evan Mobley, who has but to make an All-Star look. Allen has been about as productive as he was in his All-Star 12 months, however he has missed the end of Cleveland’s season two of the final three years. Allen’s 2022 season was minimize brief by a fractured finger and he additionally missed Cleveland’s remaining eight playoff video games final season as a consequence of a rib damage.
Cleveland Cavaliers
C
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 33.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2023 All-Star
Williamson, together with his mixture of measurement and driving potential, is likely one of the most dynamic gamers within the league. Sadly, no star is more likely to miss extra time than Williamson, who has failed to complete any of the final three seasons wholesome and has not performed in a single postseason sport in 5 seasons with the Pelicans. Williamson missed your complete 2021-22 season as a consequence of foot surgical procedure, whereas hamstring accidents to each legs ended his final two seasons prematurely.
New Orleans Pelicans
PF
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 65.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Harden has missed the final two All-Star video games regardless of taking part in at a excessive stage. He led the NBA in assists per sport in 2023 however missed 24 video games that very same season, largely due to a proper foot damage. Final 12 months, Harden missed the beginning of the season after he requested the Philadelphia 76ers commerce him to the LA Clippers, a transfer that wasn’t acquiesced to till after the preseason ended. Harden, 35, has one of many heaviest workloads within the league when he performs, however the mileage makes his effectivity and sturdiness a priority at this level of his profession.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 64.7
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Garland is likely one of the uncommon star level guards who has needed to cede the crew lead in touches to a different guard. Whereas Garland has complemented Donovan Mitchell effectively sufficient, the larger concern with Garland has been his potential to remain on the ground. Garland missed a career-worst 25 video games final season, largely due to a severe jaw damage.
Cleveland Cavaliers
PG
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 60.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Wiggins made his lone All-Star look in 2022. Sadly, he has not approached the identical stage of play or availability since, most notably due to private causes; Wiggins’ father Mitchell handed away lately. Golden State might use a bounce-back season from Wiggins after he hit profession lows in scoring, assists, steals and minutes final season.
Golden State Warriors
SF
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 58.0
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Inexperienced has made a profession out of being a 6-foot-6 versatile huge man. However even in 2022, Golden State’s final championship season, Inexperienced performed simply 46 video games due to again points. The next 12 months, Inexperienced was suspended indefinitely for unsportsmanlike conduct after placing Phoenix Suns middle Jusuf Nurkić within the face. Inexperienced’s repeated habits led to extra suspensions final season. Whereas Inexperienced is an impactful participant, that impression is just too typically felt in prolonged absences.
Golden State Warriors
C
Tier 5
Common video games performed final three seasons: 56.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
LaVine noticed the ground simply 25 video games final season as a consequence of season-ending foot surgical procedure. The Bulls have been a playoff crew when LaVine made his final All-Star look, however they have been eradicated within the Play-Within the final two years, together with 2022-23 when LaVine performed his most video games (77) in eight years. This upcoming season might be a possibility for LaVine to indicate that he’s wholesome and able to returning to All-Star standing.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 51.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
Middleton has had a tricky stretch since being named an All-Star in 2022. He was held to simply two playoff video games that spring due to a sprained knee. Wrist surgical procedure and knee points restricted Middleton to 33 video games the next season. In 2024, he had ankle accidents that price him a number of weeks and led to offseason surgical procedures. Middleton remains to be an efficient participant able to doing extra on the ball than most wings, however his availability has been a problem for years.
Common video games performed final three seasons: 44.3
All-NBA/All-Star final three seasons: 2022 All-Star
On one hand, Ball has the expertise of a star as a 6-foot-7 level guard who’s able to being one of many league’s main pick-and-roll creators. However Ball has solely performed in 58 video games the final two seasons, and the Hornets have been solely 20-38 in these video games. The Hornets have been a Play-In Event crew in Ball’s All-Star season. Now is an efficient time for Ball to indicate that he can keep on the courtroom and contribute to successful basketball as his crew’s solely All-Star caliber participant.
Charlotte Hornets
PG
Tier 5
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb: The Athletic; Photographs: Stephen Gosling / NBAE, Charlie Neibergall / Related Press, Joe Murphy / NBAE by way of Getty Pictures)
