It’s time to take yet another look again at 2023 after which concentrate on the yr forward.
What was the NBA’s defining second in 2023? Which younger participant is on the verge of a breakout in 2024? And which workforce is greatest positioned for the long run?
To reply these questions and extra, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers: Mike Vorkunov, Sam Amick and Josh Robbins.
What NBA second from the 2023 calendar yr sticks with you essentially the most?
Mike Vorkunov: I suppose if you wish to be primary then it’s LeBron James setting the all-time scoring report in February. That was cool should you’re the kind who’s into once-in-a-generation occasions. I is likely to be extra impressed by Phil Knight for watching historical past as an alternative of attempting to report it on his telephone, exhibiting that there are nonetheless folks on the market whose brains haven’t been deep-fried by telephones and social media.
However should you’re like me, and also you’re attempting to see if Ipswich City FC will discover a technique to achieve promotion this season and also you’re alongside for the experience, then the journey is the vacation spot. So the reply right here is Nikola Jokić’s ascent into historical past and his crowning second in June. Jokić ought to’ve received a third-straight MVP award final season. He didn’t after which went on a postseason rampage. Watching him lay waste to the NBA was enjoyable, even earlier than it resulted in a title and NBA Finals MVP. Seeing a brand new participant step onto the mountaintop is a type of issues that makes the NBA a lot enjoyable and occurs much less ceaselessly than you assume with the NBA’s historical past of condensed title winners and all-time greats. We noticed it with Giannis in 2021, Steph in 2015 and LeBron in Miami. Jokić is there now, a no-doubt Corridor-of-Famer who already has one of many higher résumés in league historical past (two MVP awards, an NBA Finals MVP, a hoop and numerous horse racing plaques). His second on the rostrum after pushing the Nuggets to the NBA title was memorable.
Sam Amick: Dame Time was standing nonetheless. It was late September, practically three months after the perfect Path Blazers participant of all time, Damian Lillard, had requested out of Portland, and it appeared as if the league’s newest famous person saga may spill over into the winter — if not 2024. Lillard wished to go to Miami, however Blazers basic supervisor Joe Cronin had made it clear — by means of his behind-the-scenes actions — that the Warmth situation wasn’t taking place.
The stress had risen on each side, however there was no decision in sight. So Lillard, little question involved that he may get despatched to a workforce that wasn’t of his liking, advised the workforce that he’d be affected person {and professional} for so long as it took to get a deal achieved that labored for each sides. In the long run, there was no want for that type of gesture: The blockbuster commerce that despatched him to Milwaukee to hitch forces with Giannis Antetokounmpo was about to occur.
By way of shock issue, the deal that went down noon on Sept. 27 was extraordinarily excessive as a result of the Bucks had operated within the shadows the entire time. As I wrote again in late October, the entrance workplace group — basic supervisor Jon Horst and a trusted handful of others — even labored for a number of days contained in the workforce’s locker room at Fiserv Discussion board as a manner of guaranteeing that nothing leaked within the media (working of their workforce places of work throughout the road would have meant extra eyeballs and ears). I didn’t have any sense that the Bucks have been prepared to commerce Jrue Vacation, which meant there was no purpose to suspect Milwaukee as a serious participant within the Lillard sweepstakes. And I, like so many others, couldn’t have been extra fallacious.
However by way of why this second was so memorable, it’s as a result of it appeared for thus lengthy like Lillard would by no means go away Portland. Even with the decline of the workforce, and with the possession uncertainty that unfolded within the wake of Paul Allen’s passing in October 2018 or the entrance workplace drama that led to an overhaul in December 2021, Lillard appeared decided to go towards the star participant grain and keep put. It’s nonetheless bizarre to see him in a distinct jersey, to be trustworthy. That’s why that is the one which sticks with me essentially the most.
Josh Robbins: The defining second of 2023 was the picture of Nuggets followers inside Ball Enviornment leaping, holding their arms above their heads and screaming themselves hoarse as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gathered a defensive rebound within the closing seconds of Recreation 5 and dribbled out the clock.
Sure, as my pal Vork simply stated, it was the second Jokić ascended to true NBA greatness.
However for me, what made the Nuggets’ victory so particular was that it was their first league championship ever. They have been one of many ABA’s unique 11 groups and didn’t win the title in 9 years there. And so they had not received an NBA championship for the reason that ABA and NBA merged for the 1976-77 season.
In case you’re questioning, I’ve no ties to Denver. However even a whole outsider can really feel pleased for a fan base who waited over half a century for his or her favourite workforce’s first title.
What was essentially the most underappreciated NBA storyline of 2023?
Vorkunov: The erosion of protection. Not within the cranky, outdated man yells at a cloud, “They don’t play protection within the NBA!” manner however in the best way we’ve simply seen an explosion of offense across the league that appears arduous to cease. We’ve heard Steve Kerr complain about it. Sam Presti has, too. {That a} mixture of the unstoppable motion in direction of environment friendly offensive methods and the NBA’s legislative choices to maximise freedom of motion (and, let’s admit, aesthetically-pleasing ball) has made it too rattling arduous to defend. Fourteen of the 15 greatest single-season offensive scores have occurred both this season or in the course of the 2022-23 season (shout out to the 2020-21 Nets for being the lone outlier).
For the 2013-14 season, 23 groups had an offensive ranking below 110; this season, solely 4 groups have an offensive ranking below 110. Protection has at all times been troublesome within the NBA and now it appears inconceivable generally. I ponder how that continues to alter team-building throughout the league and if the NBA tries to do something from a guidelines perspective to shift issues again even only a smidge.
Amick: That is extra “below the radar” than it’s “underappreciated,” however I’m going with it nonetheless: the continued ascension of worldwide stars in right now’s NBA recreation, and the lack of the league’s greatest younger American skills to dwell as much as their expectations. Right here’s taking a look at you, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson.
Whereas Morant was derailing the Grizzlies’ big-picture plan along with his poor off-court decisions, and Williamson was making life arduous on the Pelicans by being underwhelming and/or obese far too usually, we noticed the Sixers’ Joel Embiid (Cameroon/France) win his first MVP; the Nuggets’ two-time MVP, Jokić (Serbia), win his first title (and NBA Finals MVP); the Bucks’ two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, (Nigeria/Greece) proceed to dominate (I voted him MVP for final season); the Mavericks’ Luka Dončić (Slovenia) appear like an eventual MVP and the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada) play so properly that he belongs on this identical sentence.
For those who by some means weren’t conscious, the league’s final 5 MVPs have been worldwide gamers. Earlier than that stretch started, the award went to an American-born participant for 11 consecutive seasons after Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki (Germany) received the distinction for the 2006-07 season.
In some unspecified time in the future, American legends like LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant will likely be gone for good. However as for the query of “Who’s subsequent?” to be perennial MVP contenders on the American entrance, the reply stays unclear. Because it stands, I’m voting for the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards and the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton.
Robbins: Groups from small markets and mid-sized markets are having a second. We’ve already talked about the reigning champion Nuggets, who hail from a mid-sized market by NBA requirements.
The Bucks stay one of many league’s high contenders, and so they added Lillard to associate with Antetokounmpo. The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder are arrange for years of sustained success. The Indiana Pacers are on the rise, with Haliburton rising as a bona fide star. And the Sacramento Kings are having fun with their second consecutive sturdy season. The Orlando Magic are on the rise. The San Antonio Spurs received the lottery and now have Victor Wembanyama. And let’s not neglect the ascendance of the Minnesota Timberwolves, regardless that the Minneapolis/St. Paul market arguably is the most important of the NBA’s mid-sized markets.
As David Stern advised me in 2012: “Good drafting is a superb factor. A sensible free-agent signing is a superb factor. Good trades are an exquisite factor, and that’s a operate of administration.”
The Bucks, Kings, Magic, Nuggets, Pacers, Thunder and Timberwolves exemplify what Stern was speaking about. Good drafting and good trades may be the equalizers for small-market and mid-market franchises.
Tyrese Haliburton has led the Pacers to an 18-14 report and a runner-up end within the In-Season Match. (Invoice Streicher / USA In the present day)
Which younger participant — 24 or youthful — within the league do you anticipate to make the most important leap in 2024?
Vorkunov: It’s the massive, cell, immensely gifted unicorn massive man taking part in out his rookie season within the Western Convention. I’m speaking about Chet Holmgren, in fact. I’m undecided if that is the precise proper reply to this query as a result of I’m undecided if by “leap” we’re speaking about high quality of play or a participant in our hearts and minds, however I’m taking Holmgren right here nonetheless. I feel individuals are going to begin noticing and speaking about how rattling good he’s been, he’s and the way good he will likely be. Possibly it’ll simply take the 2024 playoffs to show heads on a wonderful OKC workforce. Holmgren has been the perfect massive man taking part in his first NBA video games this season, higher than even Wembanyama. I feel the playoffs will likely be a coming-out social gathering for him, after which I’m excited to see how good he’ll be subsequent fall when he begins 12 months 3.
Chet Holmgren has been spectacular in his first season taking part in NBA video games for the Thunder. He is tenth up to now in EPM and his profession trajectory on DARKO already places him in some fairly good firm with some notable bigs additional of their careers, regardless of this being his rookie yr. pic.twitter.com/YzA8x7nST8
— Mike Vorkunov (@MikeVorkunov) January 2, 2024
Amick: Nicely I confirmed my hand within the earlier diatribe in regards to the league’s youngest, American-born stars, however I’m going with Edwards right here. And for these of you who may argue that the 22-year-old has already taken the proverbial leap — like Bleacher Report did in a hilarious video — I encourage to vary. Or, to place it one other manner, I feel he has not less than yet another leap in him.
Edwards’ recreation has already advanced impressively, as he has taken the lead offensively (a team-high 26.3 factors per recreation) whereas additionally taking severe satisfaction in his head-of-the-snake function on the defensive finish for a workforce that leads the league in that division (their defensive ranking of 108.2 is properly forward of No. 2 Philadelphia’s 110.0). However there’s loads of room for extra progress, with Edwards’ Group USA expertise final summer season foreshadowing a few of these points that stay.
As Edwards is at all times prepared to acknowledge, he must proceed rising as a playmaker. For instance, his assist-to-turnover ratio (1.53) is tied with Antetokounmpo for the worst among the many league’s high seven highest-usage gamers. I’m nitpicking right here, to make certain, however that is a type of with-great-power-comes-great-responsibility type of issues.
Edwards is totally able to making an excellent better, extra environment friendly, impression right here in the identical manner that — await it — Michael Jordan realized to throughout his early years all these many years in the past. And since Minnesota’s offense is a measly nineteenth within the league’s rankings, with veteran level guard Mike Conley serving to mightily alongside the best way, the Timberwolves might use all of the Edwards enhancements they will get.
He can get higher defensively, too, particularly in relation to off-ball protection. As our Fred Katz detailed (with video) in his story in regards to the Knicks’ win over the Timberwolves in Madison Sq. Backyard on New 12 months’s Day, Edwards’ ball-watching helped the most recent Knicks participant, OG Anunoby, get off to a superb begin within the Large Apple. Make no mistake, this tendency to get caught sleeping and quit straightforward appears to be like on the rim off of fast cuts is a matter that the Timberwolves teaching employees wish to see — like 2023 — of their rearview mirror.
Robbins: My best choice is Edwards, however my buddy Sam made that case expertly.
So, right here’s the one that simply barely trails Edwards as my runner-up: Tyrese Maxey.
With extra alternatives now that James Harden is with the Clippers, Maxey has taken one other step ahead for Philly. The 23-year-old is averaging 26.1 factors and 6.5 assists per recreation, each profession highs.
Extra importantly, he has teamed with Embiid to guide Philly to the third-best report within the East.
Maxey could have his likelihood to take yet one more leap within the playoffs.
Anthony Edwards has taken his recreation to a brand new degree this season. (Bruce Kluckhohn / USA In the present day)
Which workforce is greatest positioned for 2024?
Vorkunov: I used to be tempted to go together with OKC, however as an alternative I’ll go together with a workforce that’s received a bit bit extra of a short-term timeline: Milwaukee. After some early season blips, the Bucks have gotten their stuff collectively. Since Nov. 15, they’re tied with the Celtics for the third-best level differential (9.0) within the league, they’ve received the fourth-best internet ranking (8.5), and the Bucks are tied with the Celtics for the perfect report in that span. The protection has nonetheless been mid, however the offense, wowza, has been firing to the tune of 123.6 factors per 100 possessions — greatest within the NBA. So yeah, the Bucks are wanting good proper now. Who knew that pairing up Dame and Giannis might imply good issues on your title hopes?
Amick: However Vork, right here’s the place I’ll push again in your decide: A “short-term timeline” comes with big-time strain, which implies the Bucks both must win the entire rattling factor this season or run the chance of sparking severe frustration internally in the event that they fall quick. With that in thoughts, I’ll go forward and make that OKC decide that you simply handed on (thanks for the oop!).
As this story particulars, the Thunder have “the deepest assortment of draft picks in NBA historical past.” To have that highly effective place whereas additionally having the workforce with the second-best report within the West (and fourth-best within the league) is the type of factor I can’t ever keep in mind seeing in my 20 years overlaying the league (be happy to appropriate me within the feedback part).
That type of terrific two-fer provides the Thunder a luxurious that the Bucks and different all-in groups like them don’t have: time to be affected person and to compete at an elite degree whereas pondering their subsequent main transfer. And going ahead, with the Thunder armed with the type of property that put them in all conversations about roster upgrades, it will likely be wildly fascinating to see how Presti decides to proceed with this outstanding rebuild.
Robbins: I agree with Sam: Oklahoma Metropolis is the league’s best-positioned workforce for the long run.
However the query requested for the workforce that’s greatest positioned for 2024, not the 5 or so years after that.
And for that purpose, I’m going with the Nuggets.
Boston’s depth is a priority. Milwaukee’s protection has taken a major step backward. And the Thunder are too younger to win a title.
Denver is the most secure — and greatest — decide right here. Nobody might cease Jokić final postseason, and he’s sturdy. And now the Nuggets have the expertise to know what it takes to win a championship. It will likely be crucial for the Nuggets so as to add extra depth on the deadline and wrest the highest seed within the West from the Timberwolves and Thunder.
Please make a daring prediction for the yr forward.
Vorkunov: The NBA could have its sixth straight season and not using a repeat champion. It’s too arduous to level to a definitive favourite proper now and if the selection is the Nuggets or the sphere, then take the sphere. The Celtics are good. The Bucks are too. The Thunder are making a push to point out that their title window may already be right here (second-best protection, third-best internet ranking, 58-win tempo). The 76ers have Embiid and Maxey. The Wolves is likely to be for actual. The Clippers might keep wholesome. The Warmth are the Warmth. So it’s price saying once more: that is the yr to take the sphere. It looks like we’ll get an ideal postseason.
Amick: Kawhi Leonard will play in 60-plus video games for the primary time since his title-winning season in Toronto (2018-19).
On this anti-load administration season through which the NBA’s participant participation coverage has been geared toward getting stars again on the ground, the league’s load administration chief has surprised the basketball world by taking part in in 28 of the Clippers’ 32 video games up to now. Leonard is on tempo to play 71 video games, which might be paying homage to his greatest seasons with the Spurs (2015-16 and 2016-17). We’re attending to benefit from the self-proclaimed “enjoyable man” often once more, and he’s a complete lot of enjoyable to observe.
Extra particularly, Leonard’s option to return from a four-game absence from a hip damage to assist the Clippers beat Miami on Monday evening spoke volumes about the best way he’s dealing with this season. In all, he’s averaging 24.4 factors (52.2 % capturing total, 42.8 % on threes, and 87.2 % from the road), 5.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks up to now. Extra importantly, he boasts a team-best plus-minus mark of plus-8.1 (Paul George is second at plus-6.1, and newcomer James Harden is third at plus-5.1).
Whereas Leonard would certainly argue that it’s all only a coincidence and that the entire video games he missed in his first 4 Clippers seasons have been mandatory, it looks like he’s making much more of an effort to be out there lately. If this pattern continues, the Clippers — who’ve received 12 of their final 14 video games and dropped video games to Oklahoma Metropolis and Boston whereas Leonard was out — will possible be within the title-contention combine.
Robbins: The Nuggets will repeat as NBA champs, defeating the Sixers within the NBA Finals in six video games.
GO DEEPER
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(High photograph of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić: Jack Dempsey / pool by way of USA In the present day)
