Late final month, I used this house to speak about a couple of storylines to keep watch over for the second half of the 2024 Main League Baseball season. One of many important issues I mentioned was the Wild Card race for each leagues and the way it was nonetheless huge open — particularly within the Nationwide League, the place the whole Postseason image included 12 of the 15 groups.
It’s been a couple of weeks since then and when you might argue that that quantity has gone down from 12 to 10 since each the Cubs and the Reds didn’t precisely come out of the gates swinging within the second half, issues have tightened up significantly in any other case. Many of the pleasure has come from the highest of the NL Wild Card race getting very attention-grabbing impulsively.
If you happen to had informed most Atlanta Braves followers throughout Spring Coaching that their staff would have been drawn right into a dogfight for the Wild Card, they in all probability would’ve responded with “You imply the division, proper?” Certainly, whereas the Braves had been a stable decide to win the NL East as soon as once more this season, it might’ve been cheap to consider that the Phillies might have given Atlanta a critical run for his or her cash when it got here to the divisional crown. Whereas the Phillies have certainly slowed down from the livid tempo that they had been on to begin the season, they’re nonetheless fairly large favorites at this level to finish Atlanta’s run of divisional dominance and win their first divisional crown since 2011.
Nevertheless, the Braves now have greater issues to fret about apart from merely making a run to retain the divisional crown. Atlanta is now in a struggle to easily make the Postseason. The hole between themselves and the NL Wild Card pack has shrunken to the purpose the place they’ve gone from having a cushty lead and an 84 p.c shot at clinching a Wild Card spot (in line with FanGraphs) on July 11 to all of the sudden having their probabilities go down practically 20 factors to 67 p.c. They enter Monday only one share level forward of the San Diego Padres for the primary Wild Card spot and solely half a recreation forward of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final. They’re simply 1.5 video games forward of the New York Mets who’re at the moment on the surface trying in.
Actually, the Mets even handed the Braves within the standings at one level after the break earlier than falling behind practically as rapidly. Nevertheless, it’s grow to be clear that the Braves are possible going to have a serious struggle on their fingers to carry onto the highest Wild Card spot and may additionally be in a struggle to easily make the Postseason. So, what occurred? How has this race gone from being practically a positive factor in Atlanta’s favor to all of the sudden being a free-for-all the place even the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals are only one good stretch of baseball away from having a critical shot, themselves?
For the Braves, it is come down to 2 main points: Accidents and an absence of constant offensive manufacturing. For all of the harm luck that the Braves have had in current seasons, they’ve had none of it right here in 2024. For reference’s sake, this is Atlanta’s lineup from Opening Day:
Now, this is how the Braves appeared 4 months later:
Evidently, it might’ve been miraculous for any staff to keep up their lofty expectations with that a lot lineup turnover in any given season. As such, it is fairly straightforward to grasp why and the way an offense that was the most effective to ever do it (within the common season, a minimum of) final season has all of the sudden grow to be a gaggle that’s hitting .239/.303/.406 with simply 97 wRC+. The Braves are extraordinarily lucky that their pitching has been nice this season as a result of the offense has been middling at finest and is the one actual factor protecting them from falling utterly into the pack as a substitute of nonetheless being on the head in the meanwhile. Atlanta’s been hovering round 9-10 video games over .500 since Might. Being 20-9 seems to be nice in Might! Nevertheless, being 60-51, six video games behind within the division and in a cage struggle for a Wild Card spot is not nice for a staff that had the expectations that Atlanta had!
Atlanta’s continued sputtering has coincided with the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks waking up. Actually, with each San Diego and Arizona going 8-2 over their final 10 video games, they have not simply totally established themselves within the Wild Card dialog however they’ve additionally made issues somewhat attention-grabbing the NL West race because the Los Angeles Dodgers have began slowing down, themselves. Whereas each the Padres and D-Backs are nonetheless very a lot outsiders for the division, they’ve completely performed themselves into rivalry.
A.J. Preller’s deadline dealings had been extraordinarily dangerous, as San Diego’s head baseball honcho determined to primarily empty the farm out as a way to enhance their bullpen. They’re one hundred pc all in at this level they usually’re taking part in prefer it as properly. The Padres are the most well liked staff in baseball for the reason that break (11-3), they’ve gained 5 straight sequence and seem like firing on all cylinders proper now. Supervisor Mike Shildt is pushing all the fitting buttons and he’s been doing a really stable job of using the improved bullpen as a way to shorten the video games.
With a bullpen already filled with fearsome arms like Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada and the additions of July NL Reliever of the Month Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing, this isn’t a staff that you just wish to fall behind towards after six innings. With their high-powered offense (sporting the Sixth-best staff wRC+ in baseball), they’re additionally a staff that no person would wish to see in October if they’ll proceed this tempo and lock down a Postseason berth.
The identical goes for the Diamondbacks, who’ve lastly hit their stride after spending most of this season struggling — it is virtually as in the event that they’re the defending Nationwide League Champions, proper? Arizona has overcome harm problems with their very own and have been slowly-but-surely clawing their means again into the playoff dialog. Arizona’s offense is simply as high-powered as San Diego’s (they’ve the Seventh-best staff wRC+ in MLB and are only one level behind San Diego in that regard) and it positive helps when you will have Corbin Carroll showing to get up as guys like NL MVP candidate Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have been mashing all season. You already know issues are going properly while you’re capable of begin a recreation like this:
In the meantime on the surface trying in on the Wild Card spots, the New York Mets are nonetheless hanging round. They’ve undoubtedly slowed down since the brief-but-magical run with Grimace however they’re just one.5 video games out of a Wild Card spot, to allow them to’t be counted out by any means. The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t precisely the image of consistency however they’re hanging proper on in there at a recreation over .500 and we’re seeing proper now whether or not or not they’re going to be critical contenders after having simply seen the Diamondbacks and are set to begin taking part in the Padres on Tuesday. The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping that getting a minimum of a part of the ol’ band again collectively can revive a few of that outdated satan magic that all of us keep in mind and even the San Francisco Giants nonetheless have somewhat little bit of life left after Blake Snell’s no-hitter over the weekend.
There’s nonetheless a lot left to play for for almost all of groups within the Nationwide League. The NL Wild Card race figures to be notably fascinating — we figured it might be as such as soon as baseball returned from the break and up to now this race has lived as much as the billing. Any sizzling streak or hunch from any of those aforementioned groups might have a big impact on the Postseason race and it is clear that issues are nonetheless very a lot up within the air as we get into the enterprise finish of this season.
