Who ought to be probably the most proud of a transfer to a brand new backfield? We’re attempting to reply that query by taking a look at which NFL working backs joined a workforce with a extra profitable working sport and an offense that options backs extra.
The working again panorama will look loads completely different in 2024.
Not as a result of there might be a brand new crop of rushers within the league, however as a result of a number of the prime gamers on the place joined new groups at an unprecedented charge and can shake up the bottom sport within the NFL this season.
A complete of 13 starting-caliber working backs both signed with or have been traded to a unique workforce this offseason, led by one-time speeding or scrimmage-yard leaders Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. Earlier than 2024, solely 16 whole working backs with not less than 100 touches switched groups between 2021-23.
Whereas it’s unclear precisely why or how this unfolded — our greatest guesses are age, strategic shifts or a disagreement on the working again market — many groups might be affected by the motion at this place. The gamers themselves will definitely see one thing occur to their manufacturing as effectively — for higher or worse.
Traditionally, working backs hardly ever see fast success on a brand new workforce. Prior to now three seasons, working backs on new groups averaged simply 658.4 yards and 4.6 touchdowns (amongst 18 who rushed for greater than 100 instances). Solely six rushed for greater than 800 yards and simply two (D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery in 2023) eclipsed 1,000 yards.
Now, this could possibly be much less about their conditions and extra about their utilization (solely 9 rushed greater than 150 instances of their first season and simply six did it greater than 200) however the level nonetheless stands.
For this train, we’ll check out 9 of the 13 starting-caliber working backs and see in the event that they landed in a greater or worse state of affairs than the one that they had on their earlier workforce. We in contrast two baseline statistics from every working again’s outdated workforce with its new one: run success share and run charge.
Run success charge being how typically a workforce beneficial properties a profitable play (50% of the yards to achieve on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down) on a designed run play and run charge being how typically it rushes the soccer total.
Primarily, we’re taking a look at whether or not or not a working again joined a workforce with both a roughly profitable working sport and an offense that both options working backs roughly.
So a “higher” state of affairs is extra about whether or not or not they’ll be put ready to succeed based mostly on how the offense is run. We additionally took under consideration whether or not or not a participant would slide into an RB1 function or committee and if the brand new workforce has a rookie quarterback or not.
Listed below are 9 of these gamers. Those in a greater, worse and too-soon-know spot.
Higher Spot
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley earned the obvious improve this offseason when he made the intra-divisional transfer from the New York Giants to the Philadelphia Eagles. Not solely do the Eagles present Barkley with an 11.3% higher run success (based mostly on their 2023 offense), however the workforce’s offense was additionally 4.3% extra run-focused than the Giants’ this previous season.
Now, there are some apparent caveats right here. Firstly, Kellen Moore is now the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. The opposite is the lack of heart Jason Kelce, who anchored the Eagles’ spectacular offensive line for 13 years earlier than he retired after the 2023 season.
It’s unclear how a lot of a task Moore could have in play-calling duties or how a lot his offense will trickle down from head coach Nick Sirianni. However Moore’s presence may impression the working sport given the earlier offenses he ran with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023 and Dallas Cowboys in 2022.
Moore’s offense in Los Angeles was a catastrophe — particularly on the bottom. The Chargers’ run success was worse than the Giants in 2023 (31.4% for L.A. vs. 32.0% for New York). The run charge was additionally barely much less, particularly given Justin Herbert’s acumen beneath heart and Austin Ekler’s declining effectivity.
Moore’s 2022 offense in Dallas was higher from an effectivity standpoint (a plus-4.5% distinction in contrast with the 2023 Giants) regardless of working the ball simply as a lot as New York did a yr in the past.
Because of this Moore’s impact on the offense may be much more useful to Barkley given how profitable the Cowboys working sport was for therefore a few years.
Kelce’s absence may also be a mitigating issue given his alternative performed alongside him in Philadelphia for the previous two years. Cam Jurgens, who the Eagles drafted within the second spherical two years in the past, began 31 video games and performed in 2,066 snaps at heart in school at Nebraska. Whereas he doesn’t have a lot NFL expertise on the place, he actually isn’t new to the function.
All this factors to Barkley remaining among the best working backs within the league. And this time, he’ll play for a squad with Tremendous Bowl aspirations.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry left a Tennessee Titans workforce that tallied the second-most speeding makes an attempt within the NFL since 2017 — the yr he took over because the beginning working again. Tennessee rushed 3,347 instances, throughout which Henry led the NFL in carries 4 instances, speeding yards twice and speeding touchdowns twice.
Coincidentally, Henry joined the one workforce with extra speeding makes an attempt and yards because the Titans throughout that span: the Ravens.
This bodes effectively for Henry’s 2024 marketing campaign. Regardless of his age — Henry is the second-oldest working again within the league anticipated to begin this yr and the primary if Raheem Mostert doesn’t begin for the Dolphins — he’ll seemingly see the vast majority of snaps for a Baltimore workforce that has been traditionally good working the ball. The Ravens have by no means ranked decrease than seventh in speeding makes an attempt and eleventh in yards since 2017.
Todd Monken’s first yr as offensive coordinator bore spectacular fruit from the bottom sport as effectively. The Ravens ranked first in makes an attempt and yards this previous season and fourth in speeding touchdowns. Baltimore additionally has a +5% distinction in run share and a +1.5% run success charge distinction in comparison with Tennessee.
Oddly sufficient, although, the remainder of the Ravens’ offensive expertise would possibly truly be a detriment to Henry.
For one, Lamar Jackson’s speeding capacity may doubtlessly put Henry in worse speeding conditions due to the workforce’s need to maintain a spy linebacker in case Jackson scrambles. In 2023, the Ravens confronted the fifth-most heavy containers within the NFL and their prime two working backs — Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — ranked within the prime eighth in dangerous containers seen. Edwards ranked fourth at 61%, whereas Hill ranked eighth at 57.9% amongst working backs with not less than 80 carries. Henry ranked twelfth at 55.7%.
A few of that may be attributed to the specter of Jackson on the bottom and the Ravens’ total proclivity for establishing a speeding sport earlier. Nevertheless, the shortage of a potent exterior go catcher has additionally contributed to the defenses’ continued box-stacking technique.
The Ravens go catchers weren’t nice this previous season, as Zay Flowers was the one one with greater than 45 receptions and 550 receiving yards. Baltimore didn’t make any notable receiver additions, both, other than DeVontez Walker within the fourth spherical and Deonte Hardy in free company.
None of this could deter Henry from dominating from the bottom. He’s nonetheless in an total higher spot than he was in Tennessee and will be capable of proceed to construct on his spectacular legacy.
Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers
Jacobs is probably going in line for a similar bellcow function he had with the Raiders, however with a younger and ascending Packers workforce that has an amazing coach and quarterback mixture in Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.
Jacobs joins an offense that additionally had a significantly better run success charge than his earlier squad. The Packers’ 36.0% run success charge is 2.4% higher than the Raiders regardless of an an identical run charge total. Each Inexperienced Bay and Las Vegas ranked seventeenth with a 38.5% run share.
The Packers have a greater total offense as effectively — which is an effective factor for any working again as a result of it opens up pathways in the course of the protection. This previous yr, the Packers’ prime two rushers in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon hardly ever ran up towards heavy containers. Jones ranked twenty seventh and Dillon ranked twentieth. Jones’ 4.6 yards per carry ranked seventeenth.
What’s odd, although, is that defenses hardly ever stacked containers towards Jacobs and the Raiders in 2023. Jacobs noticed fewer dangerous containers (participant particular fairly than the team-focused heavy field) than both Packers working again and ranked thirty second amongst all working backs. The Raiders as a workforce ranked twenty ninth in heavy containers confronted — 3.9% lower than the Packers, who ranked 18th at 47.6%.
The Raiders had a potent exterior menace in receiver Davante Adams, which seemingly pressured defenses to shift focus to the passing sport fairly than fear in regards to the working sport.
Now, Jacobs will get a greater offensive coach with a greater quarterback and offensive line in entrance of him. All of that ought to result in a greater state of affairs for Jacobs in 2024.
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
The Texans have been one of many worst speeding offenses within the NFL this previous season. Second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans hopes Mixon and a wholesome offensive line can change that.
The menace by way of the air with quarterback C.J. Stroud and the trio of huge receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell ought to assist Mixon’s trigger in 2024. He loved his finest season in Cincinnati in 2021 when Joe Burrow threw for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns with two 1,000-yard receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins coupled with 800-yard receiver Tyler Boyd. Mixon tallied 1,519 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns that season.
Houston provides a little bit of a unique identification, although. The workforce had a barely worse success charge in 2023 than the Bengals by 2.8% and ranked twenty ninth in yards per carry regardless of speeding 6.1% extra. The Texans additionally ranked dead-center in heavy containers confronted.
With one other yr of Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik in addition to Tytus Howard and Kenyon Inexperienced again on the road, Mixon could possibly be in a greater total place than he would have in any other case been in Cincinnati.
However that can depend upon how Slowik incorporates Mixon into the offense in comparison with what he did with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary a yr in the past.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
It’s arduous to know the way a lot worse Jones’ spot is for a number of causes. We don’t know the way Kevin O’Connell’s offense will look with out Kirk Cousins beneath heart, and we additionally don’t know who will substitute Cousins between Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy.
Subsequently, it’s unclear how a lot of the speeding stats from 2023 will play into 2024. Jones is objectively higher than Alexander Mattison was and Ty Chandler is, however he’s actually not on a greater workforce than the one he left in Inexperienced Bay.
On this state of affairs, although, the numbers aren’t in his favor. The Vikings had a barely worse run success charge (0.4%) than the Packers and in addition ran the ball virtually 6% much less this previous season.
Whereas the Vikings encountered the second-fewest heavy containers (39.4%) in 2023, that was when Cousins was beneath heart for a lot of the season. O’Connell might shift extra to the run if Darnold or McCarthy begin.
Justin Jefferson is the one different dependable offensive weapon in Minnesota with T.J. Hockenson recovering from a late-season ACL tear and Jordan Addison doubtlessly coping with a suspension from a DUI. Whereas this might imply extra alternatives for Jones, it may also imply extra focus from the protection.
Chandler is a looming presence as effectively, as his 4.52 yards per carry ranked twenty second amongst working backs this previous season and he averaged 4.87 yards per carry within the last 4 video games of the yr with 4 mixed touchdowns.
Jones isn’t any stranger to backfield competitors in Inexperienced Bay with Dillon just lately and Jamaal Williams prior to now, however he may not be in a a lot completely different state of affairs than the one he left — simply with a worse quarterback state of affairs.
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders
Ekeler has loads going towards him in 2024: He’s the fourth-oldest working again within the NFL anticipated to see vital snaps, will seemingly be in a timeshare with a youthful Brian Robinson and is on a brand new workforce with a brand new head coach, offensive coordinator and rookie quarterback.
There are a number of positives right here, although. The Commanders had an above-average run success charge in 2023 at 37.1% (virtually 6% higher than the Chargers) and made a big improve to the offensive line with heart Tyler Biadasz, who completed with greater than double the run block wins than the Commanders’ facilities in 2023.
However every thing will depend upon No. 2 total choose Jayden Daniels, how new OC Kliff Kingsbury runs his offense (the 2022 Arizona Cardinals had virtually the identical run share because the 2023 Chargers) and what what function Ekeler performs behind Robinson — both as a third-down pass-catching working again or a real 50-50 break up.
Ekeler’s manufacturing took a big dip in 2023, when he averaged lower than 4.0 yards per carry for the primary time in his profession. A change of surroundings may reinvigorate him or simply speed up his decline within the backfield.
Worse Spot
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Swift’s transfer might be fascinating as a result of not solely did he change groups, however he’ll play for a unique offensive coordinator for the fifth consecutive yr he’s been within the NFL.
That offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, additionally deployed a working sport that ranked twenty eighth in run share and thirty first in speeding makes an attempt for the Seattle Seahawks in 2023. Now, Waldron’s with the Bears.
In comparison with Swift’s 2023 workforce, Philadelphia, Waldron’s offense ran the ball 5.8% much less and had a 6.8% worse success charge on the bottom. It stays to be seen how a lot of that sport planning will translate to Chicago in 2024. Oddly sufficient, the Bears have been the fifth-most run-heavy squad within the NFL a yr in the past with Luke Getsy on the decision.
Waldron isn’t the one new addition to the Bears alongside Swift. Chicago introduced in two new receivers in Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze in addition to No. 1 total choose quarterback Caleb Williams.
All of that expertise could possibly be good for Swift, who completed thirteenth in yards per carry a yr in the past, however he may additionally change into an afterthought on an offense that can look to get its rookie passer going early and infrequently.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
A brand new shade of blue could possibly be good for Pollard, although he gained’t inherit Henry’s workload in Tennessee. The offense might be completely different with ex-Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan on the helm and the emergence of younger working again Tyjae Spears would possibly stifle Pollard’s alternative share.
Comparatively, Callahan’s offense with Mixon within the backfield for the Bengals rushed 4.8% fewer instances than the Cowboys did in 2023 with Pollard. The run success charge was additionally 2.1% worse in Cincinnati than in Dallas as effectively.
Tennessee’s offensive line can be a piece in progress with two first-rounders in 2023 choose Peter Skoronski and 2024 choose JC Latham. It stays to be seen if Will Levis could be an efficient beginning quarterback, even with a duo of stable go catchers in DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley at his disposal.
None of these are significantly good indicators for Pollard to regain his pre-injury type when he averaged 5.3 yards per carry from 2021 to 2022.
Zach Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
The one factor higher about Moss being in Cincinnati fairly than in Indianapolis is his potential function. He would have by no means been a starter with the Colts due to Jonathan Taylor. Now, Moss will get an opportunity to tackle an even bigger slice of the speeding sport with Chase Brown as the one actual menace within the backfield.
Nevertheless, Moss joins an offense that can lean on its passing assault, particularly with the promotion of quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher to offensive coordinator.
The Bengals ran the ball 7.8% lower than the Colts did in 2023 and had a 3.4% worse success charge on the bottom. Zac Taylor’s working video games have by no means ranked higher than nineteenth in carries, twenty second in yards per try or twenty third in speeding yards.
The Bengals are a pass-first workforce with Burrow beneath heart and Higgins and Chase on the surface. That gained’t change with Moss within the backfield, and he provides even much less as a go catcher than Mixon did.
Moss caught a career-high 27 passes on his 210 touches in 531 snaps. Mixon, who averaged 274.3 touches throughout his six seasons as a full-time starter, averaged 40.4 receptions per season. Brown, in the meantime, tallied 14 receptions on 58 touches in 93 snaps throughout his rookie yr.
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