Week 1 is right here after we already noticed one main upset in Week 0. So we’re breaking down the largest video games and revealing our TRACR faculty soccer predictions for the highest 25.
The primary week of the 2024 faculty soccer season lacks schedule depth, with most energy convention groups going through both Group of 5 or FCS opponents.
However the slate has headlines on the high.
Every week after Georgia Tech surprised No. 10 Florida State in Eire in a “Week 0” assembly, the season begins in earnest between Thursday and Sunday. The slate has three ranked-versus-ranked video games, and blessedly for all of us, these FBS matchups are unfold throughout three totally different viewing home windows.
Right here’s how Opta Analyst’s TRACR mannequin sees the largest faculty soccer video games of Week 1 – plus, a couple of themes to look out for in these season-opening blockbusters. TRACR (Workforce Score Adjusted for Convention and Roster) is a web effectivity metric that evaluates how properly a crew performs based mostly on who it performs.
The mannequin relies on an EPA (anticipated factors added) calculation weighed by who groups play. A crew with a TRACR of 0.0 is taken into account a mean crew within the FBS. So let”s say TCU has a TRACR of 14.0 and Indiana is at 0.0. In the event that they performed one another at a impartial website, the almost certainly end result can be TCU profitable by 14 factors.
No. 20 (TRACR) Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (Atlanta), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
Three years in the past, Clemson and Georgia performed a season-opening sport at a impartial website in Charlotte. Issues had been totally different then. Clemson nonetheless appeared like one of many elite packages within the sport, Georgia hadn’t but received its two nationwide championships underneath Kirby Sensible, and the Tigers had been 3.0-point favorites.
Georgia received 10-3 that evening, launching itself towards Sensible’s first School Soccer Playoff title and persevering with a Clemson decline that has but to reverse. The sensation this yr, with the Bulldogs favored by 13.5, is loads totally different.
Clemson’s protection ought to be robust. The Tigers’ most important questions are on offense, notably at large receiver. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has upside and wasn’t dangerous final yr, however he didn’t stage a breakout. That had loads to do with Clemson’s lack of downfield playmaking.
The crew’s most-targeted cross catcher was tight finish Jake Briningstool, who was sure-handed (simply two drops on 75 targets) however not explosive or nice at getting separation (a really low 64% open charge on his targets and an excellent decrease 45.3% burn charge).
Briningstool is again, as is No. 1 receiver Tyler Brown. However Clemson’s solely wideout who was good at roasting defensive backs, Beaux Collins, was inconsistent and transferred to Notre Dame. The Tigers will rely closely on two depth wideouts, Adam Randall and Antonio Williams, to play properly in greater roles. Neither bought greater than 3.0 targets per sport final yr. How will they do within the highlight in opposition to a UGA secondary that’s certain to be one of many sport’s greatest?
Georgia, No. 1 in our TRACR rankings and No. 1 in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) coming into the season, has a humiliation of riches. Determining a weak point for the Dawgs is tough.
Right here’s one thing to maintain observe of, although: Whereas UGA returns 4 of 5 beginning offensive linemen, the one alternative is at middle. The Dawgs misplaced first-team All-American Sedrick Van Pran to the NFL, and his alternative, redshirt junior Jared Wilson, won’t get a honeymoon interval.
In Wilson’s first begin, he’ll be face-to-face with dominant Clemson defensive sort out Peter Woods. Final yr, Woods’ 32.7% run disruption charge was by far the very best mark of any common defensive lineman on both of those groups. If you would like a touch of how good Georgia’s offense could be this yr, hold observe of how Wilson, the lone beginner on UGA’s line, does in opposition to the perfect defensive sort out he’ll face all season.
TRACR’s Win Chance: Georgia 80.9%
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 9 Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC
The Aggies are rebuilding underneath first-year coach Mike Elko, however solely somewhat. Elko inherited a proficient roster from the fired Jimbo Fisher, even accounting for a handful of switch portal defections.
Elko’s earlier fast turnaround at Duke within the ACC invitations hopes that he’ll rev up the Aggies rapidly. He’ll get a giant likelihood in his debut sport in opposition to a transparent CFP contender. The Aggies are 2.5-point favorites at Kyle Area, driving house the purpose that Elko is anticipated to supply a fairly good crew straight away.
The A&M protection may very well be nice straight away (twenty seventh in D-TRACR). Defensive sort out Shemar Turner is a second-team all-SEC preseason decide after posting very robust pass-rushing (17.3% stress charge) and run-stopping (13.7% run disruption charge) numbers final yr.
Edge defender Nic Scourton arrives from Purdue, the place he created a 22.1% stress charge on 140 pass-rushing snaps final season. That was eleventh within the Huge Ten, and Scourton was solely a sophomore. Now he’ll be part of a greater protection.
It is a matchup between offenses with potential (each rank within the high 10 in offensive TRACR). However Notre Dame confronts an uncommon query: Will its offensive line maintain up? The Irish have lengthy been one among faculty soccer’s mannequin developmental packages for linemen. To that time, final yr’s beginning tackles, Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, went fifth and 59th within the final NFL Draft.
The participant anticipated to switch Alt at left sort out, Charles Jagusah, bought harm in fall camp and can miss the season. The Irish have authentic uncertainty at each sort out spots – by no means factor, however particularly scary when your Week 1 matchup is a defensive entrance as proficient because the Aggies’.
We might know inside a couple of quarters whether or not Notre Dame has the offensive line to be thought-about an actual title contender. Both method, it’ll be enjoyable to observe Duke switch Riley Leonard working in opposition to Elko, his previous head coach.
TRACR’s Win Chance: Notre Dame 51.3%
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 18 USC (Las Vegas), 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC
A lot of the speak round USC will middle on new quarterback Miller Moss, the previous backup who replaces Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 general draft decide Caleb Williams. However that dialog misses an apparent level: USC’s offense will all the time be advantageous so long as Lincoln Riley is round.
Moss was spectacular in a Vacation Bowl win to cap final yr’s disappointing marketing campaign, however the primary purpose to consider in him is that Riley wouldn’t go right into a season with a QB he didn’t consider in. The following Riley quarterback who isn’t superb would be the first. We will safely assume that the Trojans will rating quite a lot of factors.
It’s all concerning the protection, although. Riley lastly cleaned home on his defensive employees after one other humiliating show on that aspect of the ball in 2023. Coordinator Alex Grinch is out, and a brand new employees led by former UCLA coordinator D’Anton Lynn and North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz is in.
It could take a while for the USC protection to gel, however one participant price watching straight away is center linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold. The Oregon State switch was first-team All-Pac-12 final yr after which joined the exodus from the Beavers after realignment left this system stranded.
USC has suffered from awful linebacker play to date underneath Riley, however Mascarenas-Arnold is a ray of hope. His 13.3% run disruption charge and 26.8% stress charge on restricted pass-rushing snaps made him one of many nation’s most well-rounded linebackers final yr. The Trojans are ranked a not-too-shabby seventeenth in D-TRACR in opposition to the cross heading into the season.
The LSU story, in the meantime, actually ought to be all concerning the QB. Garrett Nussmeier, a former blue-chip prospect, takes over for Heisman winner Jayden Daniels in Louisiana. Nussmeier won’t replicate something near Daniels’ manufacturing as a runner, however he did a pleasant Daniels impression as a passer in restricted reps final season. Most encouraging, he took excellent care of the ball, throwing only one “pickable cross” on 75 makes an attempt.
Nussmeier is in his fourth season with this system, and Brian Kelly will financial institution on the QB not requiring a lot of an adjustment interval to maintain LSU aggressive. Our mannequin factors to him being proper, with the Tigers rating second in O-TRACR heading into the season.
TRACR’s Win Chance: LSU 63.4%
The Remainder of TRACR’s School Soccer Picks for Week 1
- TRACR No. 2 Oregon 99.1% (win chance) over FCS No. 7 Idaho
- No. 3 Texas 90.4% over No. 91 Colorado State
- No. 4 Alabama 89.1% over No. 73 Western Kentucky
- No. 6 Ohio State 96.7% over No. 122 Akron
- No. 8 Penn State 62.1% over No. 22 West Virginia
- No. 10 Ole Miss 99.1% over FCS No. 12 Furman
- No. 11 Kansas 98.2% over Lindenwood
- No. 12 Michigan 79.6% over No. 59 Fresno State
- No. 13 Missouri 98.7% over Murray State
- No. 14 Miami (FL) 53.3% over No. 23 Florida
- No. 15 Tennessee 97.8% over FCS No. 9 Chattanooga
- No. 16 Oklahoma 97.4% over No. 128 Temple (Friday)
- No. 17 Arizona 97.6% over No. 133 New Mexico
- No. 19 Kansas State 98.1% over UT Martin
- No. 21 Auburn 98.3% over Alabama A&M
- No. 24 Oregon State 98.4% over Idaho State
- No. 25 Louisville 97.4% over Austin Peay
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