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The closing night time of NBA Cup group play on Tuesday had a mixture of comebacks, shut finishes, calamities and controversies. Now, the sector is about for the knockout levels.
The stage is about for the Knockout Rounds 🏆
Quarterfinal #EmiratesNBACup motion takes place subsequent Tuesday, 12/10, on TNT and Wednesday, 12/11, on ESPN and TNT! pic.twitter.com/qDaKBbKCF1
— NBA (@NBA) December 4, 2024
The eight groups that superior — the Magic, Bucks, Hawks, Knicks, Mavericks, Thunder, Warriors and Rockets — will face one another in native markets for the quarterfinals. The 4 winners of these video games will advance to Las Vegas for the semifinals, whereas the 4 losers will meet on Dec. 15 or 16 in native markets. These two video games will depend towards regular-season standings.
The winners of the 2 semifinal video games in Las Vegas will play on Dec. 17 for the NBA Cup championship. Whereas the championship is not going to depend towards regular-season standings or statistics, the gamers on the profitable workforce will earn greater than half one million {dollars}. (And, after all, a yr of bragging rights.)
What occurs within the NBA Cup isn’t a surefire indication {that a} workforce will do huge issues within the spring. Final yr, the Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers to win the inaugural In-Season Event in a area that additionally noticed the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans advance to Las Vegas. Although all 4 of these groups went on to qualify for the 2024 postseason, solely the Pacers wound up profitable a playoff sequence, whereas the Bucks and Lakers modified head coaches.
However we’re right here for the enjoyable and the competitors! So right here’s how these groups measure up to one another, and the way I believe it might go:
Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks (Tuesday, Dec. 10)
Have they met this season?
This can be their first assembly of the season. The Magic have been already scheduled to go to Milwaukee twice. Final season, the 2 groups cut up the regular-season sequence.
Have they got a playoff historical past?
The Magic and Bucks have solely met within the postseason twice, with each ending in first-round wins for the Bucks. The groups met within the 2020 restart within the bubble, and in 2001, when Bucks coach Doc Rivers was the coach of the Magic.
When the Magic have the ball …
The Magic have a bottom-10 offense and can be going up in opposition to a Bucks protection that has improved considerably whereas profitable 9 of their final 10 video games. Solely 5 groups permit extra 3s than Milwaukee, however solely the Washington Wizards have been much less correct from 3 than the Magic this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo can be a premiere check for rising Magic star ahead Franz Wagner.
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When the Bucks have the ball …
The Bucks have a top-10 offense, however the Magic have been the most effective protection within the East. Orlando is the one protection within the league within the prime three in each turnover and defensive rebounding share, whereas the Bucks are the worst offensive rebounding workforce within the league. The Magic additionally permit the fewest 3s of any East workforce, although the Bucks have level guard Damian Lillard, a more durable project defensively due to his prolonged vary.
Who wins?
This matchup pits two of the most well liked groups within the league in opposition to one another, in addition to two groups which have needed to overcome early-season adversity. I really feel just like the Bucks have the sting as the house workforce, in addition to the lone workforce on this area that made it to Las Vegas a yr in the past.
Prediction: Bucks
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (Tuesday, Dec. 10)
Have they met this season?
Sure. The Mavericks beat the Thunder 121-119 at Paycom Middle final month, a Dallas win keyed by PJ Washington. This December matchup may go in another way, as Mavericks level guard Luka Dončić and Thunder heart Isaiah Hartenstein each missed the sport with accidents they’ve since returned from.
Have they got a playoff historical past?
The 2 groups have met within the postseason 4 occasions because the Thunder relocated from Seattle, with essentially the most important sequence being the 2011 Western Convention finals that the Mavericks received en path to their first NBA Championship. Final yr, the Mavericks upset the top-seeded Thunder within the West semifinals.
When the Mavericks have the ball …
This matchup pits a top-five Mavericks offense in opposition to the NBA’s finest protection. The Mavericks have been snug offensively in opposition to the Thunder, partly as a result of Dallas is likely one of the least frequent ball-movement groups within the league. That helps in opposition to an Oklahoma Metropolis protection that leads the league in steals. The Thunder additionally permit the fewest paint factors within the league, and the Mavericks are one of many highest-scoring paint groups within the league this season. OKC can have an actual problem conserving Dončić and Kyrie Irving from making performs.
When the Thunder have the ball …
The Mavericks have a top-10 protection, whereas the Thunder have a top-10 offense. The Mavericks are bodily alongside the perimeter of their try to make issues powerful on shooters. How they do this in opposition to Thunder level guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be a problem for the Mavericks protection; Gilgeous-Alexander had an environment friendly 36 factors and eight assists with just one turnover final month in opposition to Dallas. The problem for the Thunder is how they’re going to attain when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the ground.
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Who wins?
When the schedule got here out in August, not one of the Mavericks-Thunder matchups have been slated for nationwide tv. The NBA Cup gave the league a mulligan on that call. These are two of essentially the most isolation-heavy groups within the league, they usually are likely to play proper right down to the wire, even when a workforce will get a double-digit lead. The Mavericks received within the playoffs final yr, received in Oklahoma Metropolis final month, and have received 9 of their final 10 video games. Pretty much as good because the Thunder are taking part in, it seems like Dallas is snug with this matchup.
Prediction: Mavericks
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (Wednesday, Dec. 11)
Have they met this season?
Sure. The Hawks survived 22 made 3s by the Knicks to win 121-116 in Atlanta final month. It was the most effective recreation of 2024 NBA Draft No. 1 choose Zaccharie Risacher’s younger profession, because the teenage Frenchman scored 33 factors on 11-of-18 taking pictures whereas including seven rebounds, three assists, three steals, two blocks and no turnovers. Risacher hasn’t had one other recreation this season with at the very least 20 factors, however he opened a number of eyes that night time.
Have they got a playoff historical past?
The groups have met thrice within the playoffs, with the Knicks profitable semifinal sequence in opposition to the Hawks in each 1971 and 1999. However Hawks level guard Trae Younger is an authorized New York villain after the Hawks upset the Knicks within the 2021 Jap Convention quarterfinals.
When the Hawks have the ball …
Each the Hawks offense and the Knicks protection are within the backside 10 within the league. The Hawks are a turnover-prone workforce, however the Knicks are dangerous at forcing turnovers, and the Hawks compiled a season-best 3.88 assist-to-turnover ratio in opposition to New York final month. If Younger can function comfortably within the open flooring and in pick-and-roll, then it will likely be an extended night time for the Knicks protection.
When the Knicks have the ball …
The Knicks have emerged because the NBA’s finest offense; solely the Cavaliers shoot higher percentages from the sector and from 3. On the flip aspect, no workforce permits extra made 3s than the Hawks, and opponents shoot these 3s at a league-high 38.5-percent clip. New York is likely one of the heavier midrange groups within the league, led by All-NBA level guard Jalen Brunson. However there are many 3s to be discovered in opposition to the Hawks.
Who wins?
If this recreation have been in Georgia, I’d have a look at it in another way. The Hawks have proven that they will confidently beat any workforce within the league, they usually might have extra bench assist than they did after they beat the Knicks in November. However the Knicks have performed rather well at house, and after giving up 146 factors in Milwaukee throughout final season’s knockout spherical quarterfinals, they’ve the uncommon motivation of not getting embarrassed on this spot for a second yr in a row.
Prediction: Knicks
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Wednesday, Dec. 11)
Have they met this season?
Sure. Final month, the Warriors led by 31 factors within the second quarter at Houston, and took a 71-43 halftime lead. Regardless of trailing 96-80 getting into the fourth quarter, the Rockets started the fourth quarter on a game-tying 18-2 run and compelled extra time. From there, Warriors energy ahead Jonathan Kuminga outscored the Rockets 6-2, saving the Warriors from an enormous collapse with a 127-121 win. The Warriors made 32 of fifty free throws to make up for the absence of Stephen Curry.
Have they got a playoff historical past?
The Warriors and Rockets met 4 occasions between the 2014-15 seasons and 2018-19 seasons. Every time, Curry’s Warriors beat James Harden’s Rockets, with two of these occurrences going down within the Western Convention finals (2015 and 2018).
When the Warriors have the ball …
Solely the Thunder and Magic have been higher on protection this season than the Rockets, who excel as a bodily protection that makes it arduous for offenses to get snug taking pictures 3s. Solely the Timberwolves permit fewer 3s than Houston. Solely the Celtics, Bulls and Hornets make extra 3s than the Warriors, although. One thing’s gotta give. Final month in Houston, the Warriors constructed their lead by making 12 3s within the first half, however the Rockets got here again as a result of the Warriors made solely 3 of 12 3s the remainder of the sport.
When the Rockets have the ball …
The Rockets have an unspectacular offense. Solely 5 groups have worse field-goal percentages than Houston, and solely 4 groups are lower than correct from 3. The ball sticks in Houston, as no workforce passes it much less steadily. The Warriors have a top-five protection that may lock in on stagnant offenses. Houston made solely 41.1 % from the sector within the November loss.
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Who wins?
These groups will really meet in Golden State six days earlier than they’re scheduled to play within the knockout spherical. Each groups will definitely be bored with one another by then. Houston is nice on the possession battle, skying in for offensive rebounds to rescue for underwhelming performances. It feels just like the Warriors will climb out of their present doldrums, whereas Curry is harmful sufficient in a one-game setting to take benefit.
Prediction: Warriors
What occurs in Vegas …?
A closing 4 of Bucks-Knicks and Warriors-Mavericks would have all the things the NBA might need from a shopper standpoint: champions, huge markets, future Corridor of Famers and worldwide MVP finalists. The Knicks could be the lone workforce that hasn’t made an NBA Finals in my Vegas 4, however I imagine that the best way their offense is performing (and the way head coach Tom Thibodeau is already taking part in his beginning lineup playoff-like minutes) makes them a harmful workforce to win this NBA Cup.
Prediction: Knicks over Warriors
(Picture illustration: Meech Robinson/The Athletic; photographs: Harry How/Getty Pictures; Stacy Revere/Getty Pictures; Al Bello/Getty Pictures; Joshua Gateley/Getty Pictures; Tim Warner/Getty Pictures; Joshua Gateley/Getty Pictures; Jason Miller/Getty Pictures)
